John Bravender, who grew up in Michigan, knew he wanted to pursue weather sciences from his college days in the Midwest; his mother worried about his career choice, as mothers do.

She asked a relative, who also had been with the National Weather Service in Nebraska, whether he’d make the same choice now. His answer was no, not with the tools of the 1950s and ’60s, but with all the technology available today, absolutely yes.

“Back when he was doing forecasting, they were operating so blind, so little information,” said Bravender, who is the warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Honolulu.

“You feel some responsibility, especially there in the Great Plains, putting out tornado warnings, trying to warn people,” he added. “If you miss something, people could die. The technology we have now — the greater radar coverage, more detail, more frequent updates — gives a better picture of what’s happening.”

Bravender, 39, was a forecaster at the NWS and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center for a decade before moving into his current role, a liaison between the staffers studying the data and other agencies, as well as the public. He moved here with his wife — the two are sailing enthusiasts and live on their boat — after multiple visits.

He loves the fact that the office at the University of Hawaii campus encompasses the full scope of weather surveillance work the agency does, where on the mainland, facets such as aviation, marine forecasting and tropical cyclone forecasting are spread across various installations.

Hawaii escapes much of the sudden weather changes brought on by strong fronts, which normally break up by the time they reach the islands, Bravender said — but weather does vary here, even so. Of the 12 climate zones defined globally, he said, 10 exist on Hawaii island. Also, Oahu averages 15 to 20 inches of rain annually at the airport, he said; a few miles inland, at the mountaintop, it can be 250-300 inches a year.

As for hurricanes, he worries that residents lapse into overconfidence that the next storm won’t hit. The reason Hawaii has dodged so many bullets?

“We are lucky,” he said simply.

Question: Earlier this year, five to eight tropical cyclones were predicted for the season. Any adjustments to the forecast?

Answer: No adjustments yet. We’ll be on the higher end of the outlook range if El Niño develops, and on the lower end if we stay ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) neutral. Right now the equatorial Pacific remains neutral and chances of El Niño developing are becoming less likely.

We’re just getting into the normal peak of hurricane season, which usually starts to ramp up during the second half of July. So far this year we’ve had two systems, Fernanda and Greg, both of which weakened well east of the state.

Q: What first interested you about meteorology generally, and in your specific profession?

A: I thought I stumbled into meteorology in college, an offshoot of learning about aviation and flying as a Civil Air Patrol cadet in high school. However, when I graduated, my mom gave me an old picture from elementary school where I had dressed up as the “North Wind” for a school play, so maybe my weather roots started a bit younger. …

What drew me to the Honolulu Forecast Office was the sheer diversity of our responsibility. … There’s always challenging weather somewhere in our area of responsibility.

Q: How would you characterize the effect of global warming on hurricane frequency and/or intensity?

A: Hurricanes get their energy from the ocean, so at a basic level, warmer water means stronger hurricanes. However, changing ocean temperatures also affect global wind patterns. Some studies suggest that a warmer planet will lead to more hurricanes, while others indicate that there would be fewer in number but stronger in intensity.

Either way, there will be a greater threat to Hawaii, which is why preparation and mitigation ahead of time is so important.

Q: People have said Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa have some effect on the hurricane path, tending to steer storms away. Does topography have any effect at all?

A: Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa won’t deflect a hurricane, as we recently saw with Iselle and Darby both making landfall near Pahala in 2014 and 2016, respectively. Hurricanes are steered by winds up to 40,000 feet, and some studies have shown that the most important steering layer is between 20,000 feet and 40,000 feet, well above the top of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa.

However, the mountains can have a big impact on intensity. Iselle weakened from an 80 mph hurricane just offshore to a 40 mph tropical storm after crossing the Big Island, in part because of how much the island terrain disrupted the low-level circulation. This happens even with smaller mountains. Hurricane Iniki (in 1992) rapidly weakened from a 145 mph category 4 hurricane to a 90 mph category 1 hurricane within 18 hours after making landfall in Kauai.

Q: What technological changes have had the most impact on improving accuracy in forecasting?

A: To make a good forecast, you need to know what the atmosphere looks like now and be able to calculate how it’s going to change with time. We’ve seen big improvements in both of these areas, with new satellite sensors and more powerful computer models.

The “old” generation of satellites we have today are still much better than what we had 25 years ago to track Hurricane Iniki, and the new generation currently being launched will be another leap forward. They help determine what’s currently happening with the atmosphere, which is put into a computer model to predict how it will change with time. …

As computers get faster and can model smaller scale features, researchers are continually developing new models and algorithms to better simulate the atmosphere. As a forecaster, we get the new data and the new computer models and combine them with our experience to make a better forecast.

Q: Is there anything about the weather dynamics in this part of the Pacific that limits forecasting?

A: It’s hard being alone in the middle of the ocean. Aside from satellite data, we have limited observations upstream to know how weather systems are evolving.

When a storm moves across the mainland, by the time it reaches the East Coast it’s been sampled and measured by many observers, radars and weather balloons, so they have a much better picture of what’s currently happening. Since we don’t get those measurements ahead of time, there’s a lot more uncertainty — and consequently error — in our forecasts.

From a hurricane standpoint, we can supplement this lack of data using aircraft reconnaissance. The Hurricane Hunters will fly through any tropical systems that may threaten Hawaii, providing valuable observations. However, between coordination and travel, it takes at least four days before they can begin. …

It’s a balance of resources and need, and we’re right at the edge of the envelope of forecasting ability when we have to make the decision to bring them out.

Q: How do you approach hurricane preparedness for your own home? Always ready, or waiting until the signs look really clear?

A: I wouldn’t be a very good NWS representative if I waited until the last minute. The start of hurricane season is a good trigger to get people to prepare, but it’s also important to remember that we’re susceptible to many threats. … Whether the harbor is closed because of a hurricane or some other reason, we’re going to need our own emergency supplies.

My wife and I like the food we have in our emergency kit and actually eat away at it throughout the year. We just have to remember to restock as needed to keep 14 days on hand. Although, maybe going to the store at the last minute adds some gravitas.

My old boss told me about going to Costco after work one day. He overheard a conversation when checking out, where one guy told his friend, “I knew it must be the real thing when I saw the NOAA guy stocking up on beer.”