Former governors take sides in 2018 primary

Hawaii’s elder statesmen are choosing sides in what is shaping up as a hard-fought gubernatorial primary next year between Gov. David Ige and U.S. Rep. Colleen Hana­busa, and those early endorsements seem to signal a splintered Democratic party.

Former Gov. John Waihee is headlining a campaign fundraiser for Ige on Nov. 2, while former Gov. Ben Cayetano is emerging as an outspoken supporter of Hanabusa.

Former Gov. George Ari­yoshi is reportedly unhappy with Ige and leaning toward backing Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho for governor, but Carvalho has not announced whether he will actually run. Carvalho said he is still considering his options, and Ariyoshi won’t say yet whom he plans to support.

Ariyoshi said he has long-standing political relationships with both Ige and Hanabusa, and Ariyoshi supported Ige in his successful upstart campaign against former Gov. Neil Abercrombie in 2014. However, that Ige-Ariyoshi alliance is apparently on shaky ground today.

“I have some concerns about what’s happening in our community, but I’m not ready to say at this time,” Ariyoshi said last week.

Author and longtime Honolulu political columnist Jerry Burris said that curious mix of endorsements early in the 2018 Democratic primary says much about the state of the party.

“I think what it tells you is that there is no monolithic operation anymore,” Burris said. “If Cayetano goes one way and Ariyoshi goes another way and Waihee goes a third way, there’s no monolith there. … It means that getting a pat on the head from a previous governor doesn’t mean that much.”

Burris said endorsements by former governors were much more important decades ago when retired governors maintained a political “machine,” or at least remained part of one. For example, supporters of former Gov. John Burns mobilized to support Ariyoshi, and “that was golden for Ari­yoshi,” Burris said.

That has changed over the years as the old Democratic Party organization scattered, Burris said. There was ample evidence of those divisions in 2014 when Ige successfully challenged former Gov. Neil Abercrombie in the 2014 Democratic primary, and Hanabusa ran unsuccessfully against U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz for the Senate.

“I don’t think Ige controls many people, and I don’t think Ariyoshi controls many people, and I don’t think Cayetano controls many people, so I don’t think their influence is nearly as useful as it would have been back when there was a more organized political — for want of a better word — machine,” Burris said.

The former governors’ latest endorsements amount to a scrambling of some previous political alliances. Cayetano supported Ige in his run for governor against Abercrombie in 2014, while Waihee opposed Ige and supported Abercrombie that year.

Cayetano said he has developed a “grudging respect” for Hanabusa despite their differences over the years. In Cayetano’s memoir “Ben,” the former governor criticized Hanabusa for her role in organizing opposition to the confirmation of former state Attorney General Margery Bronster in 1999, but expressed admiration for her leadership skills on that and other issues.

“I prefer her type of leadership,” Cayetano said. “I think she’s decisive, she’s very intelligent — probably the smartest person in local politics today — she does her homework, and I like her outlook on social issues especially, and I think she has a great deal of substance.”

Cayetano said he considers Ige to be a friend and an honest man, but “I believe Colleen has the leadership style and qualities needed to lead Hawaii through what I believe will be very difficult times.”

Ige had his chance to show what he can do, but has not done enough to increase the supply of affordable housing, Cayetano said. He also maintains Ige should have taken steps to prepare for what Cayetano believes are inevitable further construction cost overruns on the city’s rail project.

“Ariyoshi and I campaigned very hard for David Ige against Neil Abercrombie,” Cayetano said. “We went to the neighbor islands for him and all that, and so I think that it’s not unreasonable for … me to have certain expectations of leadership on his part, especially since the state is entering a really troubled era.”

Waihee, meanwhile, said Ige is trustworthy and “has gotten the ship back to some kind of stability.”

Waihee cited Ige’s efforts to house the homeless and modernize state government through major investments in new computer systems as well as the administration’s legal challenges to President Donald Trump’s executive orders restricting immigration from predominantly Muslim countries.

“I think his performance as governor has been underrated because David has made it almost a badge of honor about not bragging about his accomplishments,” Waihee said. “While I can appreciate that, one thing that I wish he would do more is talk more about what they’re doing.”

Burris said many people assume Ige is politically vulnerable because they cannot readily recall what he accomplished in his almost three years as governor, and because he has low popularity ratings in polls. Ige also has been slow to raise money for the upcoming campaign, and he is now confronted by a widely known and energetic opponent in Hanabusa.

But Burris said Ariyoshi found himself in exactly the same position time and again, and managed to pull out victories in the end.

In the memoir of former First Hawaiian Bank executive Walter A. Dods Jr. titled “Yes! A Memoir of Modern Hawaii,” Dods described how he developed political slogans to complement Ari­yoshi’s similarly understated persona, including the now-famous “Quiet But Effective” campaign theme.

That slogan was based on the idea that local voters respect people who don’t rush to take credit for every accomplishment, Dods wrote. He also developed the theme “Integrity is the Issue, Ariyoshi is the Answer” in another campaign to contrast Ariyoshi’s style with the more flamboyant and hard-charging Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi.

Despite that history, Waihee said he is concerned Ige’s low-key approach to his first term doesn’t work in today’s noisy, rapid-fire social media environment.

“I really don’t think David has done a good job in terms of explaining (to the public) what he’s done,” Waihee said. “I think the day when you could just be sort of aloof in terms of your accomplishments — those days are gone. This is the age of social media, this is the age of constant exposure, and unless you’re out there showing everybody what you’re doing and how you’re working, that’s not good politics.”

He added, “David’s a little old-fashioned like that. He in some respects is a throwback to a different generation in terms of his politics.”

As for Hanabusa, Waihee said Hawaii needs her in the U.S. Congress more than ever now that Trump is president.

There is a major drawback to having Hawaii’s most talented politicians challenge one another in each election cycle for a handful of top state elected offices, he said.

“One of the bad things that happens when we encourage these kinds of musical chairs is that we end up losing good people, one way or the other,” Waihee said. “That is what I’m against.”