N. Korean ICBM test may be bargaining chip, expert says

Amid talk of war with North Korea and Hawaii’s first test of an “attack” warning siren coming up on Friday, the president of a Honolulu think tank said as counter­-intuitive as it seems, Tuesday’s North Korean ballistic missile test may set the stage for a reduction in tensions.

Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in a Wednesday newsletter that the intercontinental ballistic missile launch, according to North Korean statements, met the nation’s nuclear missile goals.

“In short, Pyongyang seems to be telling us — my words, not theirs — ‘We have made our point. Now that Washington knows we can indeed strike anywhere we want in the mainland U.S., we MIGHT be ready to talk, provided the U.S. and international community are prepared to reward us,’ ” Cossa said.

What Pyongyang really wants, and increasingly needs, Cossa said, is economic assistance and a lifting of sanctions. His guess is that the North may soon offer to freeze further tests for humanitarian assistance and a partial easing of sanctions.

The question is whether the Trump administration, eager for a victory, will fall into what Cossa sees as a trap, insisting “on a real freeze of the North’s nuclear and missile programs, which requires intrusive inspections and verification, and not just a halt in testing,” which is more easily verified but which leaves Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs intact.

Some experts believe the United States and North Korea are edging ever closer to war, and U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said as much on CNN Tuesday.

“The president has said ‘we’ll take care of it’ (the North Korean threat). And my hope is that North Korea will realize that he is serious about this,” Graham said. “The president is not going to allow North Korea to have a nuclear weapon in their hands that can hit America. … If we have to go to war to stop this, we will.”

Graham added that “we’re headed toward a war if things don’t change.”

In response to national reporting on Hawaii’s reintroduction of the Cold War-era “attack warning” siren, the Hawaii Tourism Authority on Wednesday sought to “reassure visitors to Hawaii.” Tourism is the No. 1 driver of the state’s economy.

The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency believes a North Korean strike on Hawaii is a highly unlikely possibility, the authority noted in a news statement.

“Leisure and business travelers planning a trip to Hawaii should not be alarmed by the testing of this new attack warning signal,” said George Szigeti, president and CEO of the authority. “Its implementation is consistent with the state’s longstanding policy to be prepared and informing the public well in advance of any potential threat to Hawaii’s well-being.”

Cossa said in the Pacific Forum newsletter that he believes the odds of North Korea firing a nuclear-tipped ICBM at the Hawaiian islands “are significantly less than one percent.”