State Rep. Andria Tupola has surged ahead of her opponent, attorney and former state Sen. John Carroll, in the Republican primary for governor, according to the latest Hawaii Poll.
Some 41 percent of likely primary voters said they would vote for Tupola if the election were held today, versus 28 percent who said they would vote for Carroll.
Another 8 percent of likely voters said they would vote for political newcomer Ray L’Heureux, while 23 percent of those surveyed said they were undecided.
The results mark a sharp reversal for the two leading Republican contenders. In March, Carroll was leading Tupola 40 percent to 28 percent, with 32 percent of voters undecided.
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The Hawaii Poll, conducted July 6-11 on cellphones and landlines by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, included 143 likely statewide Republican primary voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 8.4 percentage points.
The March poll was conducted March 13-18, included 134 likely statewide Republican primary voters, and the margin of error was plus or minus 8.6 percentage points.
Tupola, 37, said that a recent Hawaii News Now debate likely helped push her ahead of Carroll. It demonstrated a “stark contrast between me and my opponent and my ability to answer with cohesion, with depth and detail,” she said.
Carroll questioned the accuracy of the poll numbers and the level of support for Tupola.
“Everything I’m hearing is: ‘Oh, she’s vacuous; oh, she doesn’t know anything.’ I haven’t heard anyone say anything positive about her at all — that’s why I’m surprised,” he said.
Carroll said his campaign is “gangbusters right now.”
“I’ve never had such support,” he said.
Tupola, the House minority leader whose district covers Kalaeloa, Ko Olina and Maili, also saw a significant jump in the percentage of people who recognize her and view her favorably. In March, 57 percent of those surveyed didn’t know who she was. This number shrunk to 28 percent in the Star-Advertiser’s July poll.
The percentage of likely voters who viewed her favorably jumped from 16 percent in March to 39 percent in July, with only 2 percent of those surveyed viewing her unfavorably and 31 percent saying they were neutral.
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While Tupola has secured a solid majority of likely Republican voters, she would still have a tough time going up against the Democratic nominee in the general election. Gov. David Ige would beat Tupola 57 percent to 24 percent, according to the July poll. U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, Ige’s major challenger in the Democratic primary, would beat Tupola 48 percent to 35 percent.
Tupola said she may be able to pick up some Democratic voters based on her more liberal stances on Native Hawaiian issues and homelessness.
Hawaii Poll: Statewide Name Recognition in Governor's Race by Honolulu Star-Advertiser on Scribd
