Hawaii Poll: Ed Case far ahead in congressional race

Former Congressman Ed Case has established a commanding lead in the race for the congressional seat representing urban Oahu, apparently siphoning off enough potential votes from state Sen. Donna Mercado Kim as to knock her down to a distant third place in the Democratic primary, according to the latest Honolulu Star-Advertiser Hawaii Poll.

Case jumped into the race late, declaring his candidacy just over a month ago on the last day to file nomination papers for the Aug. 11 primary. The 11th-hour shake-up was surely a disappointment for both Kim and Lt. Gov. Doug Chin, who were the leading contenders for the seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in her bid for governor.

Some 36 percent of likely voters surveyed said they would choose Case if the election were held today; 27 percent said they would vote for Chin; and 14 percent said they would vote for Kim.

By contrast, Kim and Chin were in a near tie in the Hawaii Poll in March, with slightly more of those surveyed in favor of Kim, 32 percent, to Chin’s 29 percent.

The latest poll has the other main primary contenders polling in the single digits with state Rep. Kaniela Ing picking up 6 percent of the vote, Honolulu City Council Chairman Ernie Martin capturing 2 percent and state Rep. Beth Fukumoto at 1 percent. Some 14 percent of those surveyed said they were undecided.

Case also scored significantly higher than the other candidates on favorability, with 54 percent of those surveyed saying they had a favorable opinion of him and only 5 percent saying they had a negative opinion of him. Some 91 percent of those polled said they recognized him.

“It definitely establishes Case as the front-runner,” said John Hart, a communications professor at Hawaii Pacific University. “His low negative rating is a powerful sign for longevity.”

Hart said Case’s strategy of jumping into the race late, when there was no clear winner, and capitalizing on his name recognition was smart. “He did the right thing at the right time,” said Hart.

Meanwhile he noted that Chin is well positioned in second place if Case is to stumble in the last weeks of the race.

The Hawaii Poll, conducted July 6-11 on cellphones and landlines by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, included 244 likely statewide Democratic primary voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 6.4 percentage points. The March poll was conducted March 13-18, included 242 likely statewide Democratic primary voters, and the margin of error was plus or minus 6.4 percentage points.

“I think we’ve offered folks an alternative that they were looking for,” said Case. “The thing I hear the most from just solid, hard-core, grass-roots canvassing on the weekends and talking personally to folks in all the neighborhoods across the district is that ‘I’m glad you are in the race, I have a choice now.’ And I think folks sensed that they weren’t comfortable with the choice they had previously.”

While Case hasn’t served in political office for more than a decade, he is the only candidate to have previously served in Congress, experience he has touted throughout his campaign. Case represented Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District, which includes the neighbor islands and rural Oahu, from 2002 to 2007. In 2006 he unsuccessfully tried to unseat U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka. While Case secured 45 percent of the votes to Akaka’s 54 percent, the bid to unseat the popular senator hurt his political career. There’s little sign now, however, that the failed bid is serving as a liability.

Case also lost to U.S. Sen. Mazie Hirono in the 2012 race to replace Akaka when he retired from the Senate. Case’s absence from the political scene may be working in his favor.

“It can be really helpful to be out of politics for a few years,” said Colin Moore, director of the Public Policy Center at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. “What you risk is that people will forget who you are — but that’s clearly not the case with Ed Case. What you gain is they might forget things you’ve done in the past that they didn’t like — they remember the good stuff.”

Case’s entrance into the race appears to have had the most detrimental effect on Kim’s campaign. Both candidates share centrist views, at times veering to the right in Democratic politics. Kim, for instance, was one of four senators who voted against Hawaii’s same-sex marriage act in 2013, though she now says she supports the law. Case has been more right-leaning on issues of fiscal and foreign policy and was a member of the Blue Dog Democrats when he served in Congress. Both are considered friendly to business interests.

Kim, a veteran lawmaker, has high name recognition but has struggled with high numbers of potential voters viewing her unfavorably — 23 percent of those surveyed in the latest poll, up from 20 percent in March.

Moore said that “partly it’s her reputation of being this hard-charging legislator who brings people in front of her committee, the hapless bureaucrats, to account for spending irregularities or other problems.” But he said that it’s hard not to think part of it has to do with being a woman in politics.

“I don’t think you can dismiss the gender factor here,” he said. “I want to be careful because there are certain reasons that people might find her approach unpalatable — but I think it can be particularly difficult for female legislators in that position who are known as tough and effective. It can sometimes become a real liability for them, and I think you see that reflected in Kim’s unfavorability ratings.”

Despite the poll numbers, Kim said she is confident she will prevail on primary election day.

Chin said in a statement that with just a few weeks to go, he was pleased with his campaign’s momentum and to be in the top two.

Poll Congress – Tuesday by Honolulu Star-Advertiser on Scribd