University of Hawaii economists are forecasting that the state’s expansion has more room to run, but their outlook for the Asia-Pacific region is less rosy in the wake of the U.S.-Chinese trade war and a weakening global environment.

Tourism is expected to keep posting records — albeit at a slower pace — with visitor arrivals by air expected to increase 6 percent this year, 2.5 percent in 2019, 1.4 percent in 2020 and 1 percent in 2021, according to the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization’s annual Hawaii forecast and Asia-Pacific Outlook report released Friday. Visitor arrivals are on pace to reach an all-time high in 2018 for the seventh year in a row.

”Hawaii’s economy remains on a favorable path, with record-high visitor numbers, record-low unemployment, and ongoing — if unimpressive — income gains,” UHERO economists wrote in their report. “As expected, the economy’s rate of expansion has slowed as the business cycle has matured, and risks to the external environment have increased. But at present there are no signs of an imminent downturn. Instead, further growth at a restrained pace is the most likely outcome for the next few years at least.”

UHERO said Hawaii’s tourism industry has weathered natural disasters, such as hurricanes and the Hawaii island lava eruption, and is having another record year because of a strong global economy, abundant airline seats and access to nontraditional accommodations.

“Sufficient growth in industry capacity will accommodate incremental gains in visitor arrivals, but inflation-adjusted visitor spending growth will fall off over the forecast horizon,” UHERO said.

The UH economists say growth in inflation-adjusted personal income has been “lackluster” despite the record-low unemployment rate because of the prevalence of lower-wage jobs.

“Aggregate real personal income will continue to expand at a roughly 1 percent annual pace in coming years,” UHERO said. “Inflation will remain moderate, forestalling a significant erosion in purchasing power in the islands.”

UHERO said signs of a slowdown already are evident in a number of countries after the global economy’s best year since 2011. The researchers say it appears that the cycle has now peaked with downside risks magnified by trade tensions, high debt levels and volatile equity markets.

“The aggressive trade policies of the Trump administration and retaliation by foreign countries will have an adverse impact on the U.S., China, and other trade partners,” UHERO said, citing higher prices on imported consumer goods, higher production costs from imported inputs and decreased access to foreign markets.

“While there will be some U.S. jobs created as some production is re-shored, other jobs will be lost as U.S. companies are forced to abandon highly efficient global production arrangements or move offshore,” UHERO said. “Potential losses could hit business expectations and investment, and financial markets could also be affected, as recent volatility illustrates. In the long run, the U.S. will lose out on opportunities by locking itself out of new trade liberalization agreements.”

Japan, which is Hawaii’s largest international visitor source market, has seen its economy weaken partly due to a sharp falloff in exports.

“This is worrisome given the deteriorating global trade environment,” said UHERO, noting that the more than 6 percent depreciation of the yen since the start of the year should be a support for exports and the yen profits of Japanese multinationals.

“Exports turned negative in the third quarter,” UHERO said. “In part this may reflect a turn in the global electronics cycle and natural disasters that damaged production sites and infrastructure.”