Honolulu’s inflation rate rose 1.9% in 2018

Honolulu inflation rose just 1.9 percent last year, its slowest pace since 2015, as a sharp gain in energy prices was largely offset by decreases in the cost of apparel, education and communication, and small increases in food and beverages as well as shelter.

Hawaii economists have been saying for more than a year that growth is slowing despite record numbers of visitor arrivals and spending. Rising bankruptcies, an increasing unemployment rate and fewer bank loans are among the signs that the state’s growth is running into some head winds.

The small increase last year in the consumer price index — the most widely used measure of inflation — was below the U.S. average of 2.4 percent and less than the 2.5 percent gain for Honolulu in 2017, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The inflation rate also was below Honolulu’s historical average of 2.4 percent over the past 20 years. The last time Honolulu inflation was lower than it was last year was in 2015 when it was 1 percent.

“Our economy is growing slower than the U.S., so it is consistent with the economic growth,” said Eugene Tian, chief economist of the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. “When inflation is high, economic growth is high. When inflation is low, economic growth is slower. The inflation is consistent with other economic indicators.”

Tian said he expects inflation in Honolulu to remain mild.

“The 1.9 percent Honolulu inflation rate for 2018 is similar to DBEDT’s projection of 2.0 percent for the same period,” Tian said. “We expect Honolulu inflation will increase to 2.3 percent in 2019.”

High energy prices have kept Honolulu’s inflation rate above the U.S. average every year since 2004 except for 2014 and 2018. Energy prices rose 14.3 percent overall last year with gas prices jumping 16.7 percent and electricity prices increasing 12 percent.

Hawaii has long led the nation in energy costs. The state’s average price of electricity of 32.46 cents per kilowatt-hour is the highest in the nation — as of the most recent data in October — and more than double the U.S. average of 12.87, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. And the cost for regular gasoline in Hawaii, $3.27 a gallon, is tied for first in the nation with California and is more than $1 higher than the national average of $2.24, according to data Tuesday from AAA.

But last year’s spike in energy prices was offset by a 4.8 percent drop in the cost of apparel, a 1.5 percent decline in the cost of education and communication and slight 1.6 percent gains in the food and beverages category and in shelter, which comprises about 40 percent of the Honolulu index and covers the cost of rent and owners’ equivalent of rent.

Honolulu’s inflation picked up in the second half of the year, rising 2.1 percent from the same period in 2017. That compares with a 1.6 percent increase in the first half of the year over the year-earlier period.

Tian said Honolulu’s low inflation rate is consistent with its slow growth rate.

“In 2018, Hawaii’s economic growth rate is estimated to be 1 percent, lower than the average of the last 20 years at 1.8 percent per year,” Tian said. “The 2018 U.S. economic growth rate is estimated to be 2.9 percent, much higher than that of Hawaii.”

Tian said Hawaii’s low unemployment rate, which at one point last year hit an all-time low of 2 percent, has limited growth in the state.

“In a normal economic situation, when the unemployment rate is low, the inflation rate is high, but the current situation is a low unemployment rate with a low inflation rate,” he said. “Hawaii is having supply constraints. We have reached the limit in the labor market. There’s not enough labor available in the market, and that limits the growth of businesses and thus the growth of the economy. The increase in bankruptcy and unemployment rates indicate Hawaii’s economic growth is slowing down. The connection between these areas is not normal at this moment due to the low and persistent unemployment rate. In a normal situation, when the unemployment rate is low, inflation is high.”