A touch of financial reality will soon force itself into the conversation at City Hall.

Slowly, officials must see the impossible set of demands set in front of them as the city costs just won’t match the money at hand.

Any hard decisions reached will be because they are forced on city officials from the outside, not because the city is giving up its big spending ways.

For instance, here is this new problem. Last week, Hawaii firefighters were awarded a new two-year contract, raising salaries 2% in each of the next two years. A Honolulu Star-Advertiser report noted that firefighters also got one-time bonuses in each of those years and an increase in their regular raises based on years of service.

Honolulu has just a tad more than 1,000 rank-and-file firefighters. Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell pegs costs at an extra $5.6 million the first year and an extra $10.2 million for the second year. The newspaper report calculates that by the contract’s second year, a rookie firefighter will earn $4,776 a month during probation and $5,167 after.

At the same time, the city expects employee retirement costs to increase 13% next year. “

Mandatory contributions to address unfunded pension and retiree health-care benefits contribute to higher expenses,” Caldwell warned.

Still, those are known expenses; there are other budget goblins hiding in the brush. Caldwell’s budget notes that even before the train starts to roll, costs are going up.

“The budget includes $7.8 million for bus service enhancements and additional service hours to address delays due to rail construction,” said Caldwell in his budget document.

“CIP budget includes $45 million for the development of the Ala Moana Transit Plaza, to be planned as an iconic rail station at Ala Moana Center and $4 million for Intermodal connectivity improvements,” Caldwell said.

Iconic does not usually mean “over budget,” but in the case of Honolulu Hale operations, it might fit the definition.

There is $6.77 million slated for consultant services to prepare for rail operations, Caldwell said. When you count up government money, the savvy observer knows to ask, how is it funded? The expenses in discussion are not from the state general excise tax collection pot of rail money; this is from the city treasury, coming mostly from property tax.

If there is any good news in all this, it is that the city is just scooping up millions of new property tax dollars.

“Real property taxes remain strong and are projected to grow by approximately $108 million or 8.5% over the FY19 budgeted amount, before any proposed rate changes,” said Caldwell.

Also, tack on an extra $18 million in new motor vehicle weight tax increases. You want to register your car, expect to pay more.

Still the big unknown is rail. Planners are now considering a staggered start to opening rail: as sections are finished and the stations completed, the plan now is to open them. If that happens according to plan — and it is not certain — then expect millions more in new unbudgeted costs.

The frightening uncertainty is how much more Honolulu property tax taxpayers will pay for rail. The certain guarantee is that it will be a lot more.

Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays. Reach him at 808onpolitics@gmail.com.