Coming into Aloha Stadium tonight, the University of Hawaii and Fresno State football teams control their own destinies.

One of them will lose control.

Welcome to what shapes up as an elimination round of the Mountain West Conference West Division sweepstakes, where somebody stays in the race to win the division — and somebody figures to make an abrupt exit.

That’s the predicament the Rainbow Warriors (5-3 but 2-2 in the MWC) and Bulldogs (3-4, 1-2) find themselves in with two losses apiece while pursuing idle 25th-ranked San Diego State (7-1, 4-1), which has just one defeat and fewer games remaining.

For the Warriors, still having a conference future in their own hands after one-sided losses to Boise State and Air Force is something they can ill afford to waste.

The path of the defending MWC champion Bulldogs is slightly more uphill since they have five conference games remaining, including tonight’s contest, while UH has four. The Aztecs, who have an open date today and three conference games remaining, still have to face UH and Fresno State.

History tells that since the MWC went to 12 teams and a two-division format in 2013, only once has a team in either division won its title with more than two losses.

Winning the division carries with it a ticket to the Dec. 7 conference championship game to face the champion of the Mountain Division. Which, at this point, is still anybody’s guess. Boise State (6-1, 3-0), Air Force (6-2, 4-1), Wyoming (6-2, 3-1) and Utah State (4-3, 3-1) are in the mix after having slapped around the West Division 10-4 in cross-divisional games.

If you are the Warriors, who have yet to win their division since joining the MWC — or, in fact, a conference or divisional title of any kind in any league since 2010 — this lines up as your best chance. It is aided by this year’s scheduling rotation that, perhaps fortuitously, brings Fresno and San Diego State to Halawa.

Indeed, the avowed goal since the schedule was announced nearly eight months ago has been to find a way to set up the final conference game of the season, Nov. 23 with San Diego State, as the divisional title showdown at Aloha Stadium.

On paper, at least, the Bulldogs look to be the toughest remaining obstacle to the Rainbows making that happen for a couple of reasons. One is that San Jose State (4-4, 1-3) here next week and a trip to Nevada-Las Vegas (2-6, 0-4) the following week are the last hurdles before the Aztecs come to town.

Then, for all Fresno State coach Jeff Tedford’s citations of the difficulty of playing at Aloha Stadium, there is the Bulldogs’ mastery here. They have won five games in a row here against UH, a reign not enjoyed by any other MWC team. The Bulldogs also won the 2017 Hawaii Bowl over Houston, which is way too much familiarity and comfort for a visitor.

The Bulldogs, smarting from last week’s 41-31 loss to Colorado State, will have to build on that if they hope to repeat as MWC champion and become a three-time division winner.

Meanwhile, Hawaii has reached a juncture in the schedule where its conference future will be what the Warriors make of it.

Reach Ferd Lewis at flewis@staradvertiser.com or 529-4820.