At five tropical cyclones, the 2019 hurricane season in the Central Pacific was technically an above-average year.
In reality it was pretty quiet — at least in the waters around Hawaii.
None of the cyclones that churned into the ocean between 140 degrees west and the international dateline (180 degrees) during the hurricane season from June 1 to Nov. 30 threatened Hawaii.
At the beginning of the season, the El Nino weather pattern was
in full display and expected to last through the fall, prompting the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
to forecast a 70% chance of above-
normal tropical cyclone activity.
But Pacific waters near the equator cooled by August, and El Nino turned to neutral conditions during what’s usually the busiest part of the hurricane season.
The Central Pacific averages just under five storms a year.
Last year the Central Pacific experienced six powerful storms, including Category 5 monster Hurricane Lane and Tropical Storm Olivia, the former hurricane that made landfall on Maui and Oahu.
“We had only one less storm this year, but overall it seemed much less busy,” said John Bravender, warning coordination meteorologist in Honolulu.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center offices were not humming like they were in 2018 or during the record-breaking strong El Nino year of 2015, Bravender said.
The biggest threat in 2019 came at the end of July as Hurricane Erick grew to Category 4 intensity after traveling into the basin from the northeastern Pacific. But it steadily weakened as it passed far south of the main islands.
Tropical Storm Flossie entered the basin Aug. 3 and approached Hawaii from the east before harmlessly dissipating 85 miles north-northeast of Hilo.
Two named storms formed in the Central Pacific in 2019 — Akoni and Ema — but they steered far clear of the islands.
Another storm, Kiko, a hurricane that once packed winds of 130 mph, was on its last legs as a tropical depression when it limped into the Central Pacific basin from the east on Sept. 24 and quickly disappeared.
Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach said the year’s accumulated cyclone energy calculation (ACE) — a metric of storm intensity and duration — was below average for the Central Pacific. The basin recorded an ACE score of 14 compared with the basin’s long-term average of 19. (By comparison, the score for 2018 and 2015 reached 115.)
While vertical wind shear was somewhat weaker than normal and sea surface temperatures were warmer than usual, the atmosphere in the Central Pacific generally was quite dry, Klotzbach said.
“This dry air likely helped put a damper on the 2019 season,” he said in an email.
Despite the lack of punch, the storms did unleash some impacts on the state, Bravender said. They include:
>> Swells from Tropical Cyclone Barbara, which died out just before crossing into the Central Pacific basin. High surf was felt along east-facing shores of the state July 6-9. Remnant moisture from Barbara also led to heavy rain across Maui and Hawaii counties July 8-11.
>> Swells generated by Erick and Flossie that led to high surf along east-and south-facing shores Aug. 1-6. Moisture associated with Erick also contributed to heavy rain over Hawaii County on Aug. 2 and across Kauai County on Aug. 4-5.