Hawaii jobless rate hits year low of 2.6%

Hawaii’s unemployment rate dipped last month to its lowest level since December even as more people joined the labor force.

The seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell one-tenth of a point to 2.6% in November, according to data released Thursday by the state Department of Labor and Industrial Relations. The number has been at a virtual standstill the entire year and had been at either 2.7% or 2.8% every month until November.

The U.S. unemployment rate, meanwhile, fell one-tenth of a point in November to a 50-year low of 3.5%.

Coming off a year of slow growth, the state’s chief economist said the three industries worth watching in 2020 will be tourism, construction and retail.

“Tourism and construction industries have been doing well in the past few years; retail trade lost the most jobs in 2019,” said DBEDT’s Eugene Tian. “The direction of growth of these industries may indicate the condition of our economy.”

DBEDT is forecasting 1.2% economic growth for next year.

“We do expect the unemployment rate will increase in 2020 due to the slower economic growth in 2020,” Tian said.

However, he said the reduced pressure from the Phase 1 deal of the U.S.-China trade war and reduced fears of a recession will help Hawaii’s economy in terms of more visitors from the mainland next year. He doesn’t expect the same boost for international visitors.

“We see the international visitors will continue to be weak in 2020 and international visitors spend more in general,” Tian said. “In 2020, Hawaii’s economy will be the same as or slightly better than 2019.”

Hawaii’s lowest unemployment rate ever was 2.2% in October and November of 2017.

The last time the state’s jobless rate was below 2.6% was in August 2018 when it was 2.5%.

Hawaii’s labor force, which includes those who are employed, those who are unemployed but actively seeking work and those who are self employed, rose in November for the second straight month after nine straight monthly declines. The number of people in the labor force rose to 662,750 from 661,400 in October.

The number of people employed rose to 645,250 from 643,700. Those unemployed fell to 17,500 from 17,700.

Nonagricultural payroll jobs, which are calculated from a mail survey of employers, fell by 1,500 in November from the previous month. The number would have been up except for a decrease of 2,500 government jobs that were largely the result of the absence of a biennial election. The nonagricultural payroll jobs figure include people who might hold multiple jobs but doesn’t include people who are self-employed.

“Non-ag payroll jobs decreased by 1,500, indicating that the increase in employment may have happened mainly in self-employment,” Tian said.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased in November by 84, or 7.5%, from the same time a year ago. Over the month, initial claims dropped by 15%.

The unemployment rate was mixed in the state’s four major counties. State and national labor force data is adjusted for seasonal factors, but the county jobs data is not seasonally adjusted and thus does not take into account variations such as the winter holiday and summer vacation seasons.

Honolulu County’s rate remained at 2.4%. Kauai County’s rate rose to 2.9% from 2.7%. Hawaii County’s rate fell to 3.3% from 3.6% and Maui County’s rate declined to 2.5% from 2.7%. Within Maui County, Maui’s rate dipped to 2.5% from 2.6% and Molokai’s rate fell to 4.5% from 6.5%. Lanai’s rate rose to 1.9% from 1.4%.