Oahu is on a dreadful pace to revert to more restrictive limits on business activities and gatherings next week due to elevated COVID-19 case counts over the past nine days.
People on Hawaii’s most populous island will be hard-pressed to avoid triggering a snap-back to Tier 2 from Tier 3 under the City and County of Honolulu’s current reopening rules Wednesday, when a seven- day average of coronavirus cases will be tallied.
If the daily case average over this period exceeds 50, the rules call for moving back to Tier 2, the second most restrictive level, for a minimum of four weeks.
Avoiding the Tier 2 trigger Wednesday will be hard. That’s because there were 72 cases Thursday and 82 Friday. Even if there are only 40 new cases counted each day from Saturday to Wednesday, the seven-day average would still be slightly over 50.
The most recent seven- day daily average through March 31 was 58 and followed progressively rising averages of 40, 30 and 27 during the three preceding periods earlier in March.
If a move to Tier 2 happens without any rule adjustments, it would tighten operating limits on many types of businesses and organizations, including churches and sports teams.
For instance, restaurants and bars would have to reduce the number of people they allow per table to five from 10. They also would have to stop serving liquor at 10 p.m. instead of midnight.
Other impacts:
>> Organized outdoor team sports that require city permits would no longer be permitted.
>> Churches would have indoor occupancy cut to 50% while maintaining social distancing requirements, down from no limit except for maintaining social distancing.
>> Weddings would be limited to five participants instead of 100 in outdoor settings with social distancing.
>> Funerals would be limited to 10 people instead of no limit except for social distancing.
>> Fitness facilities would have their maximum capacity cut to 25% from 50%.
>> Movie theater capacity would be cut to 50% from no limit except for social distancing between groups.
>> Car dealerships would have a customer limit of five at a time and by appointment only instead of no limit.
Tim Sakahara, a spokesman for Mayor Rick Blangiardi, would not say Friday whether the mayor was considering, or if he had asked Gov. David Ige to approve, any exceptions for reverting to Tier 2 if the seven-day average coronavirus case count through Wednesday tops 50.
“Oahu is currently operating in the Tier 3 metric of the reopening strategy, however we are in consultation with the governor and Hawaii Department of Health given our shared concern regarding the recent increase in positive COVID-19 case counts,” Blangiardi said in a statement.
“As we enter the Easter holiday weekend we stress to the public that hosting or participating in large unpermitted social gatherings will put more people at risk,” Blangiardi continued. “The recent rogue events involving large illegal gatherings with no mask wearing and no physical distancing are jeopardizing our current Tier 3 status and are completely unacceptable. We urge the public to cooperate with the current public health guidelines for the sake of the greater good. The community must work together to prevent the spread of the virus by continuing to wear masks, remaining physically distanced and abiding by the rules of the reopening strategy.”
Cindy McMillan, communications director for Gov. Ige, would not say whether the governor had received any request from Blangiardi to alter Oahu’s reopening rules because Ige’s general policy is not to comment unless a request is approved.
Oahu’s reopening rules were established in September by then-Mayor Kirk Caldwell, and the island started in the most restrictive Tier 1.
A shift to Tier 2 happened in late October, followed by Tier 3 on Feb. 25 after average daily coronavirus case counts stayed between 20 and 49 along with a test positivity rate between 2.5% and 5% for two consecutive seven-day periods.
Under the rules, only the case average has to top 50 per day for two consecutive seven-day periods to trigger a backward step to Tier 2. If that happens, Oahu will be stuck in Tier 2 for four weeks, and to progress to Tier 3 the case count and test positivity rate would have to both qualify for two straight weeks.
When Oahu moved to Tier 3, Aloha Beer Co. in Kakaako increased its seating capacity 27% to 190 from 150, and UFC Gym planned to double its customer capacity limit to 50% from 25% at its four locations on Oahu.
Adam Carmody, assistant general manager of the Kona Brewing Co. restaurant in Hawaii Kai, said reverting to Tier 2 would hurt.
Carmody said business will take a hit. For instance, if a family of six comes in under Tier 2, they have to be split up at two tables, preventing use of the second table for other customers.
“This is Hawaii, and there are a lot of big families,” he said Friday.
Carmody said he hopes the mayor can tweak the rules to focus on things that are causing the recent rise in COVID-19 cases without punishing businesses broadly.
Blangiardi has shown some flexibility with the framework established by Caldwell, amending the rules recently to allow organized sports, bars and bigger weddings to operate.
However, some of what is allowed under Tier 3 may be contributing to the rise in cases.
Lt. Gov. Josh Green said in a weekly Facebook video briefing Wednesday that the uptick in cases last week was mostly a reflection of opening up a little more in Tier 3.
“People have been gathering because we’re all feeling fairly confident with our vaccination numbers, but this is not the time to let our guard down,” he said. “Please wear masks, please socially distance.”
