The beaches along world-famous Waikiki on Saturday looked a lot like they did before COVID-19 took hold of the planet: packed. But some who depend on the tourism industry are still cautious about whether the spring bump in visitor arrivals signals the start of a lasting economic recovery.

Tayawadee “Koi” Ford, general manager for Noi Thai Cuisine at Royal Hawaiian Center, said she’s noticed a steady increase in customers every day.

“We’ve had to turn people away because we don’t have enough tables,” Ford said. “Some restaurants around Waikiki are closing, so people are looking for more restaurants to eat at.”

Unlike many other businesses in Waikiki, Noi Thai managed to stay open over the past year, providing only takeout food at one point. At its slowest period during the outbreak, the restaurant would serve only about 50 customers a day, she said.

With restaurants now able to operate at full capacity, although with group, social distancing and mask restrictions in place, Ford was expecting an evening rush of 300 diners on Saturday.

Nina Korte, manager of Kona Coffee Purveyors at the International Market Place, said the cafe had cut back to only a third of its usual work force but is now fully staffed again, with lines down the block most mornings.

“We’re noticing an uptick in customer volume. It doesn’t seem to be dropping,” Korte said.

And no wonder: A total of 41,060 visitors flew to Oahu in the week before Easter, from Monday through Friday, according to data from the Safe Travels website. That’s still a far cry from pre-pandemic arrivals, but Oahu visitor arrivals have been steadily building since the start of the year, from 81,375 in January to 107,265 in February and 204,253 last month.

Rick Egged, president of the Waikiki Improvement Association, said the tourism mecca’s recovery will depend on how successful mainland states are in curtailing the spread of COVID-19.

“The best thing I can say is we’re cautiously optimistic,” Egged said. “The big thing we have to watch out for is if we see another spike on the mainland. That could hurt us again.”

Real estate analyst Stephany Sofos said although Waikiki seems crowded over the Easter holiday weekend, many of the visitors are “budget-minded tourists” who may not be providing as big an economic boost as one might imagine.

“It’s very, very slow. The people who are coming are coming because there are great deals out there for them, so they’re not your big spenders,” she said, noting international travelers have yet to return in force.

Sofos said she’s seen only a 10% to 20% recovery for businesses so far and believes a return to “semi-normal” won’t take place until the end of the year, depending on what happens in Japan, Korea, Australia and other key markets.

Not everyone is eager to see Hawaii visitor arrivals recover to pre-pandemic levels. Waianae resident Dawnee Ah Mow, who had set up on the grassy area at San Souci State Recreational Park with her family Saturday afternoon, said they had planned on claiming a spot on the sand but decided to stay away from the crowds.

“During the pandemic, it was nice,” she said. “The water was nicer. It was clean. … The beach and the land had to cleanse itself.”

Ah Mow, who worked in the visitor industry before COVID-19 shut it down, said the state is still too dependent on tourism as its dominant economic driver.

“Our whole focus was on tourism. But when all that stopped, what happened?” said Ah Mow, referring to Hawaii’s high unemployment rate.

She said she was surprised to see how quickly the beaches in Waikiki are filling up again and that Waianae has been seeing more tourists lately as well.