Hawaii population grows but at slower pace, census finds

Hawaii’s population grew by 7% over the past decade, and the state maintained its ranking as the 40th largest among the 50 states, according to the 2020 census, released Monday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The census counted 1,455,271 residents in Hawaii, which is 94,970 more people than were here during the last big count in 2010.

However, the number confirms that the state’s 10-year average growth rate was the lowest since 1900.

Eugene Tian, the state’s chief economist, said the average annual population growth between 2010 and 2020 was 0.68%, slightly lower than the nation as a whole at 0.71%.

Tian said two factors played a significant role in the dwindling growth: a declining birthrate and people leaving the islands.

He said people are leaving Hawaii because of the high cost of living and in search of job opportunities. He also said some folks are choosing to return to their hometown after living in Hawaii for some years.

Tian said declining birthrates are seen in a diminishing number of childbearing females (15-49 years of age), increasing child care and education costs, and more people declining to get married.

Keli‘i Akina, president and CEO of the conservative-leaning think tank Grassroot Institute of Hawaii, said the bottom line is that residents are finding it too expensive to live in the islands.

The taxes are too burdensome, the cost of housing is astronomical and there are too many barriers to business and labor opportunity, he said.

“All the good jobs and greener pastures seem to be on the mainland,” Akina said in an email. “Those of us who are still here are lucky for now; we know that most people who have left did so more or less unwillingly. They love their homes and ohana. But they have to survive, and Hawaii’s economic outlook is not promising.”

Tian said the slow population growth might continue into the future both for Hawaii and the nation.

The state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism projected that Hawaii po­pulation growth between 2020 and 2045 will be even lower than it was over the last decade, at 0.47% per year.

On the positive side, lower population growth might lead to lower local housing demand, Tian said.

As for the 2020 census, Tian said the Census Bureau did surprise state officials by releasing a population figure for Hawaii that was higher than expected.

In December 2020 the bureau released an estimated Hawaii population of 1,407,006 for 2020. The new estimate is 48,265 higher.

While several states will see changes affecting their representation in Washington, Hawaii didn’t gain or lose any congressional seats as a result of the census. Hawaii will continue to have two representatives in the U.S. House.

The Census Bureau released only statewide data and is expected to publish more detailed figures later this year.