On Politics: Brace for next year’s Hawaii gubernatorial race, with prominent candidates already up and running

Almost one year from today, July 26, 2022, to be exact, Hawaii’s election office will start mailing out ballots for the 2022 primary election races.

Voting will be held on Aug. 13, but voters can start marking their ballots and mailing them back as soon as they pull them from the mailbox in just one year.

The race to watch will be the campaign for governor.

Incumbent Gov. David Ige is termed out and cannot run for a third consecutive four-year term.

So far there are two definite Democratic candidates, Lt. Gov. Josh Green and former Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell.

Both men say they are running. Both are also raising money for the campaign. An early tally of Green’s campaign bank account shows a balance of $338,894, while Caldwell’s latest report to the state Campaign Spending Commission shows he has $518,461. Both reports are expected to be updated next month.

Former Hawaii first lady Vicky Cayetano has already said she wants to be governor and is in the process of putting together a campaign. She has not yet reported any campaign fundraising or expenditure figures.

The Democratic pair appear to be running with completely different strategies. So far, Caldwell is running a low-profile campaign based on fundraising and organizing with various power groups, developers, labor entities and businesses that have supported him in the past. Another group of political supporters includes City Hall appointees and directors. Now that Caldwell is out of office, it is an open question if department directors and deputies will keep up their political donation loyalty.

Also, in an earlier interview, political analyst Colin Moore said Caldwell’s time as Honolulu mayor has not been all positive.

“I don’t think that Caldwell will emerge as a major force in this race. His low approval ratings and association with rail will make it tough for him to gain traction with voters,” opined Moore, director of the University of Hawaii Public Policy Center.

As quietly as Caldwell is running his campaign, Green is loudly hosting an open campaign with almost daily pronouncements and public statements. The flow of publicity is based on his position as an active member of the state administration and his background as an emergency room physician fighting the COVID-19 virus.

Green’s campaign donations show strong support from Hawaii’s medical community, with both representatives from medical businesses and individual physicians showing strong support.

Caldwell’s low-key campaign has not said much about specific issues regarding statewide concerns, in contrast to Green’s list of campaign concerns. He boasts a campaign website listing 10 issues, ranging from “debt-free college to a living wage and stronger pesticide restrictions and GMO labeling.”

In the next year there is also a chance that new candidates could enter the race, or that Green or Caldwell could stumble.

That said, this opening campaign year will favor the candidate able to generate not just organizational prowess, but genuine excitement and a call to reset Hawaii’s political establishment.

Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays. Reach him at 808onpolitics@gmail.com.