If you think it’s too early to shop for the holidays, take some advice from Hawaii retailers who began ordering their holiday inventory as early as January in anticipation of supply-chain and shipping problems and are still waiting for their full orders to arrive.

Their message to holiday shoppers: If you see it, buy it. Now.

“If you wait until Christmas, it might be sold out by then or they may not have the color or model you want,” said Retail Merchants of Hawaii President Tina Yamaki.

Small businesses had to order merchandise “extra early,” she said, yet items they expected to receive in the summer are only now arriving.

Although container ships are not clogging Hawaii’s harbors like at some West Coast ports, local businesses and consumers are far from immune to supply-­chain disruptions and increased costs this gift-giving season. In fact, as an island state, Hawaii is far more vulnerable to shipping hikes than the contiguous U.S., and shoppers here can expect the holidays to be more expensive than last year.

“We anticipated this supply-chain problem back in March and April, so we started loading up early,” said Brad Ishii, owner of Thinker Toys and Thinker Things stores in Hawaii for 24 years. “We’re bringing all our products in now.”

He said he was tipped off to the impending problems in March by manufacturers at a gift show in Las Vegas.

“They were telling me, ‘You need to order now,’” due to the shortage of raw materials from China, the rise in container shipping costs and the logjam of ships at Los Angeles and Long Beach ports.

“Since we’re smaller, we were able to pivot quicker and get the products in as quick as possible” using a freight forwarder, Ishii said, as opposed to large retail chains such as Target and Walmart that bring in large containers of goods.

Fortunately, Hawaii’s harbors are not dealing with the same problems as the California ports where container ships are waiting offshore to be unloaded. Retailers say they are receiving goods as they arrive since there is no backlog or delays at the ports and there’s an adequate number of truck drivers to move products.

“There are currently no delays or congestion at Honolulu Harbor,” the state Department of Transportation said.

This is because the major shipping lines that serve Hawaii generally work their vessels at their own facilities on the West Coast, according to the DOT, and the size of vessels that sail to Hawaii are smaller than the majority of ships calling on the mainland ports, “meaning less time needed to work these vessels.”

Securing merchandise from manufacturers is another matter.

Ishii anticipates a shortage of larger-size toys, such as Bruder trucks made in Germany, and large boxed items like Mattel’s Hot Wheels sets. He said he brought in large plush items early and stored them off-site.

“The things we ordered in July and August for Christmas, those have not come in yet and I don’t think they’ll come in till next year,” Ishii said.

There’s been a huge lag in producers shipping out their goods, he said, with some items ordered in January arriving just a month ago. And many toy manufacturers have raised prices by 20% to 25%, according to Ishii.

“So you’re going to see a lot of sticker shock on the toys, unfortunately, especially the larger items,” he said. “Smaller items we can get in from the mainland and from China, but still it’s ridiculous.”

Supply shortages and high prices extend to Christmas trees.

Elton Hara, general manager of Koolau Farmers’ Kaneohe location, said he won’t know the tree prices until he gets the freight bills, but both shipping and tree costs have gone up significantly.

“A small operation like us, we cannot afford to not raise prices,” he said. “Some larger stores have concessions made to them, but we have to raise prices. We don’t make that much, but we’ve been doing this for so long and a lot of our customers are expecting us to supply them.”

He predicts Christmas trees might be in short supply again this year.

“Last year, not as many people bought trees since they couldn’t have parties,” Hara said. “This year might be different and people might want trees because they’re having guests coming over.”

City Mill buyer Iris Wilhelm-­Norseth had a different take on the COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on Christmas tree buying.

“Last year we sold out so quickly, but people weren’t traveling last year. Those people hadn’t bought trees for a very long time,” she said. “If people are going back to traveling this year,” she figures fewer of them will buy trees.

Nevertheless, “we did purchase more,” she said. City Mill will have one container of trees at each of its eight stores and an extra one at its two busiest locations.

“We buy enough to sell out,” she said. “It’s not something you can put on sale after Christmas, like Christmas ornaments.”

The Oregon farms have begun cutting trees and packing them in refrigerated containers, according to Wilhelm-Norseth.

“It was touch and go,” she said. “I’m not sure what the quality of the trees will be because it was so hot there. At least there were no huge forest fires there.”

She ordered the firs in July and expects them to be here by Nov. 15, waiting to clear agricultural inspection. “If all goes well, they might be ready for sale the weekend before Thanksgiving.”

Other items ordered from manufacturers that are struggling with supply-chain issues were ordered “way, way in advance,” such as ornaments in January and February, which still haven’t come in, and Christmas lights made in China and Vietnam, Wilhelm-Norseth said.

“Everything’s kind of stuck on a container somewhere,” she said. “Everything will be here when the trees land.”

Yamaki said small businesses that piled up a lot of debt during the pandemic face an additional hurdle, as manufacturers and suppliers “are demanding payment upfront.”

So some retailers “are not bringing in as much as they used to. They want to sell it all out by the time Christmas comes and not have a lot of leftover inventory.”

Unlike their North American counterparts who order from mainland suppliers, Hawaii businesses “can’t just put it on a train and put it on a truck” and have it delivered, Yamaki said. The products still have to go the added step of being put on a ship or plane to Hawaii.

“We’re particularly vulnerable since most of our goods are shipped in,” Chamber of Commerce Hawaii President and CEO Sherry Menor-­McNamara said. “From what we’ve heard, part of it is due to record-breaking shipping volumes,” in part from online shopping, which is “taxing the logistics nationwide.”

The pandemic also resulted in the closure of many manufacturing companies, forcing Hawaii businesses to look for other sources.

Pre-pandemic there may have been five manufacturers for a product, but now it’s down to three, Yamaki said, and formerly stocked warehouses are now depleted and “they’re just trying to keep up with the orders.”

Many retailers have adjusted the timing of their orders and their business models in general, as they have had to switch vendors, source their products from different countries and find alternate delivery services, Menor-McNamara said.

Despite the setbacks, the 2021 holiday season may prove quite bright for some local retailers.

“COVID hit our community hard,” Ishii said. “Our community has been supportive of local businesses. People say, ‘We’re so glad you are here’ and they decided to come to our store instead. … It really touched my heart. We are very optimistic for the Christmas season.”

Puzzles and games continue to be big sellers during the pandemic, he said, because families have been staying home and “bonding” over them, and “fidget toys” have been popular with kids and adults who use them for calming.

“A lot of the toy stores are seeing their business up well over 50%. We’re seeing that as well, so we’re very fortunate,” Ishii said.