As Hawaii kicks off the holiday season, as younger children are finally able to join the ranks of those vaccinated against COVID-19, as the surge in the delta virus has abated, is it fair to say this state is entering a new phase in the exhausting pandemic that has battered the world for nearly two years?
Yes and no.
The “yes” part should not be forgotten. Yes, Hawaii has achieved a reduction in its infection rate that is enabling a more celebratory mood as the month of traditional gatherings and events approaches. Compared to 2020, its healthy pace of vaccinations are allowing the return of everything from college football to movies and seasonal theater.
Weddings and other organized events are back, too, not to mention the international travelers the tourism industry has missed for so long. Restaurants and other businesses are still in recovery mode, but there’s much to bring hope that economic recovery is in the works. And there’s hope that relaxation of regulations on social-gathering group sizes are just around the bend.
Now for the big “no.”
No, this thing is not over, much as island residents fervently wish it could be. Setting aside the national woes, even relatively safe Hawaii is not at the point where a full resumption of life as we knew it would be wise. In fact, that could be disastrous.
For starters, there are clear signs of falling efficacy of the vaccines that are already delivered. A study of nearly 800,000 veterans that was published Nov. 4 in the journal Science showed that over a six-month period, the effectiveness of the Moderna vaccine had dropped from 89% to 58%.
The rate of decline was worse for Pfizer/BioNTech (from 87% to 45%) and especially for Johnson &Johnson (86% to 13%).
A whole lot of people are far more vulnerable to COVID-19 than they thought, and right when socializing is picking up.
No state, not even Hawaii with its aggressive efforts, has sufficiently high vaccination rates to steer completely clear of a possible winter-spring surge. Now is not the time to take our foot off the gas pedal.
Hints of what would be ahead for a no-holds-barred “return to normal” in Hawaii can be glimpsed from distant Europe. In Belgium, for example, winter infections are now hitting hard, despite the fact that 74% of its entire population is vaccinated — roughly where Hawaii’s rate is now. Spain and Portugal are doing better at 80% and 88%, respectively.
But most expert watchers of the delta variant believe full vaccination at a rate closer to 90-95% of the population will be needed to provide the level of immunity that protects the general population. Despite its enviable lead, Hawaii has a long way to go to reach that point.
Additionally, Halloween parties across the mainland already resulted in concerning infection spikes, especially in regions of low vaccination rates and very little masking.
It’s also the cold that forces everyone indoors, where poor air circulation ramps up the viral transmission. This is certainly one factor that has worsened since 2020: The delta variant, which is the cause of nearly all current infections, is so incredibly infectious that any degree of socialization, especially indoors, comes with greater risk than it did a year ago.
Of course, Hawaii is endowed with warmer weather, so larger- group activities can be enjoyed in outdoor settings with less contagion.
It also has enjoyed the protection of Safe Travels Hawaii rules. Certainly that program must remain in place for the forseeable future, as should indoor masking — at least until infection rates fall further. These protective measures have empowered Hawaii to keep the virus at bay as well as it has.
As health officials have said repeatedly, it is not tourism but community spread of the virus that is the principal cause of infections — and reinfections — of local residents. Winter 2021-22 is again anticipated as a “pandemic of the unvaccinated,” and as long as it continues to circulate worldwide, the coronavirus can infect those without the shot and break through the weakening armor of the vaccinated.
Ultimately, the state at some point must reduce government mandates and allow people to use their best judgment. Perhaps this can start soon with larger social gatherings. Gov. David Ige should review which rules are needed when the latest emergency proclamation expires Nov. 30.
And lawmakers are considering, as they should, putting up more guardrails for these proclamations. House Speaker Scott Saiki said he’s looking at introducing a bill to enable the Legislature to change all or part of a proclamation, and possibly to limit its duration. That discussion should begin soon after the session convenes in January.
Decisions will be guided by conditions at the time — and nobody knows now what they will be. Accepting the unpredictability of this virus, and acting with caution until the fog lifts, is the only rational course. Hawaii simply can’t afford to go backward on this path.
