By Nov. 30, Hawaii will learn if Gov. David Ige will extend emergency orders into a third calendar year. Ige’s orders imply that his mitigation approach will slow the virus, yet outside of infection counts, data specifically supporting the governor’s decisions is scarce. In fact, outside of jails, there is little data that shows a cause-and-effect relationship between Ige’s mitigation efforts and the drop in infections. The drop could as likely be the impact of vaccinations and individual mitigation decisions.

From May 14 — when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention dropped its restrictions for fully vaccinated individuals in most settings — through July 21, Hawaii reported 4,781 infections; 1,658 (35%) were tied to “correctional facilities,” with 1,565 from Big Island. The Top 3 clusters outside of the jails/prisons were social gatherings (4%), restaurants (3%), and churches (2%). Contact tracing accounted for up to 87% of infections from May 12 to July 8.

While Ige didn’t have control of infections in the jails, he was comfortable enough to drop interisland restrictions in mid-June, and Oahu restaurants and bars could open more widely with vaccine exemptions.

In early July, the state Department of Health (DOH) limited reporting clusters to bi-weekly. The state’s infections were 1,679 in the July 22 report, and spiked to 4,317 in the next report. In the weeks following until Nov. 12, 45,289 infections would be reported. The jails continued to be the largest contributor, reporting clusters tied to thousands of infections. Only 4,250 other infections were accounted for on cluster reports. This meant 38,215 infections were not linked to ANY cluster. More specifically, only 16% was linked to a cluster.

Removing the jails, the number drops to 6%. Statistically, outside of jails, we have little data-specific information on managing infections: 1% (467) came from restaurants, 1% (544) came from “food suppliers,” 0.5% (269) came from churches and social gatherings. Removing the 9% from jails, 90% of infections were not linked to any cluster or assigned a category.

When infections spiked in July, Ige reversed on the stated goal of dropping restrictions once vaccinations hit 70%, and returned to pre-vaccine public policy. Ige adopted a top-down approach overriding the mayors, mandated vaccines, and waited on federal approval for children’s vaccines.

The last cluster report that showed a 96% drop in jail infections still only accounted for 7% of infections. Outside of plateaued infections, there is no way to tell if Ige’s approach has had any impact.

The last restaurant cluster was eight infections in early October. Yet in every Oahu restaurant, diners sign contact-tracing sheets in what appears to be a performative ritual.

From a data perspective, there is nothing indicating a cause-and-effect relationship supporting Ige’s policies. To extend emergency orders and use the same mitigation tools does not have any predictive impact. The mayors who know the specifics of their islands should tailor their mitigation efforts.

It is time to move away from Ige’s top-down approach, and allow the mayors to exclusively manage their individual islands’ mitigation efforts. If we maintain the current course, there is no causal reason why we will be in a different place in another 60 days.

Oahu resident Rob Sobier had a career in management consulting with companies such as Chrysler, Boeing and General Electric.