As 2022 approaches we face extraordinary uncertainty. There’s a prospect of a fifth surge as news of omicron, a multifaceted mutation, possibly the most contagious yet, has already stimulated fresh travel bans. The economy is also proving hard to navigate. News of the latest mutation quickly hit the capital markets last week. Pandemic rescue funds have triggered inflation, and supply chain disruptions make for an uneven recovery. Hawaii’s visitor industry is working to implement a more sustainable strategy, but repeated changes in rules for travelers are unsettling. Following COP26, efforts to curb planetary warming continue, yet weather and sea level rise remain a major concern here in the islands.

COVID-19

Hawaii breathed a sigh of relief as the fall peak in cases began to abate and precautions were eased. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration just gave approval for vaccinations of children age 5-12, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced approval for all adults to receive booster shots. Yet just like delta/delta plus and alpha before that, omicron, a new strain of COVID-19, with at least 30 mutations, appears to be even more contagious than its predecessors. Scientists are working to determine the severity of cases with this mutation. They are also trying to determine whether current vaccines are protective. In any case, many who were vaccinated in the first quarter of 2021 now have waning immunity and are yet to receive their boosters or risk breakthrough infection. This, in concert with winter on the mainland, combined with holiday season gatherings and now omicron, could result in a January surge in the islands. Last week alone, the seven-day moving average of new cases in the U.S. rose 16%.

Economy

During the past two years, trillions of dollars have been pumped into the U.S. economy to compensate for curtailed demand, lost jobs and lockdowns related to the pandemic. Augmented unemployment payments have been instrumental in supporting housing and food security for Americans, while Paycheck Protection Program dollars helped many businesses to survive that would have failed. These federal resources, more generous than any other nation per capita, did buoy the economy but came with unintended consequences. Until the end of last week, U.S. capital markets were at an all-time high, and unemployment numbers have drifted back toward normal, but inflation is hitting levels not seen in decades. This is partly the result of many jobs that remain unfilled, causing competition among employers for qualified employees. Inflation is also driven by supply chain disruptions, especially for industries such as construction. Failing to tap the brakes in time on inflation risks a spiral of social and economic instability, while tapping the brakes too soon, especially on the precipice of a fifth potential surge, risks slowing economic activity and flattening gross domestic product such that the tax base drops, making it highly onerous to service the national debt.

Tourism

The disruption to Hawaii’s visitor industry, owing to COVID-19 restrictions, brought to a crescendo calls for a more sustainable approach with fewer, more respectful tourists. The Hawaii Tourism Authority’s revised five-year plan is on point, and there remains much to be done. Count on 2022 to be a year of transition for the visitor industry. As Hawaii works to manage headroom and airlift with a more refined approach to the visitor experience and total numbers, we also will have to meet challenges faced by the global visitor industry, including impacts from COVID-19 and climate.

Climate

COP26 recently wrapped up in Glasgow, Scotland, with clear progress on collaborative international efforts to control global warming. Progress was made to curtail deforestation and to reduce coal and oil in favor of renewables. Still, for most, COP26 should have gone further. Hawaii remains at risk from the effects of climate change, including continued erosion of coastal lands, bleached coral, stressed fisheries and hurricanes. Energy and food security will continue to receive needed attention in the year ahead.

2022

These next 12 months will be a year of uncertainty. The pandemic will continue to be part of our lives and affect the health care system, our visitor industry and the economy. If the vaccination rate in Africa stays at 7%, additional mutations should come as no surprise. What happens with the U.S. economy will be largely determined by how skillfully inflation is addressed. For jobs and businesses, next year still will be a period of recovery but an uneven one with many winners and losers. In 2022 the visitor industry will toil to remake and rebuild with a vision of sustainability. Finally, global warming will continue to rear its head. We are already living through the effects of climate change, and this will continue. Once more with dedication to ohana and community, caring and creative human spirit, we will rise up again in 2022 and embrace the challenges at hand.

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Ira Zunin is a practicing physician. He is medical director of Manakai o Malama Integrative Healthcare Group and Rehabilitation Center. Please submit your questions to info@manakaiomalama.com.