Editorial: Omicron variant threatens to reverse gains

Those who are not dismayed and a bit frightened by the rising case counts of COVID-19 are not paying attention.

Not even considering the actual tornadoes that have ripped apart communities across parts of the mainland, there’s a perfect storm now whipping through the country that, public health experts warn, could be every bit as tragic.

That goes for Hawaii, where residents and their leaders now are called upon to stay ahead of this latest threat. The principal weapon is vaccines, both first doses and boosters. But an increased deployment of rapid testing also will help guide residents through social activities safely, through the holidays and beyond.

How did we get here? There were several steps.

Buoyed by a retreating delta variant of the coronavirus, the counties, including Honolulu, in November happily scaled back restrictions for social gatherings and at public places.

Holiday season activities picked up steam. The seasonal tourism bump is taking shape. Informal family gatherings resumed at full capacity starting with Thanksgiving, with no signs of that abating through Christmas and New Year’s Eve.

Enter omicron, the ultra-transmissible variant, which quickly found its way to Hawaii. As of Friday, said Health Director Libby Char, the state had confirmed 31 cases, with 17 more suspicious infections under laboratory analysis.

There are many people who are taking hope in initial data suggesting that omicron brings a milder form of disease that could lead to less hospitalization. It is plainly too soon to assume that will be the case.

Even though he acknowledges the question of omicron’s lethality is still a “wild card,” Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi is putting a lot of stock in the hospitalization metric, and in “hoping for the best.”

On Thursday he told reporters he is holding off making changes in gathering restrictions on Oahu until COVID-19 hospital admissions hit around the 300-400 level. The next day, Blangiardi acknowledged the rising counts and said the administration will “continue to monitor conditions very closely and consult with our medical experts.”

He and other leaders certainly need to keep a close eye on the trend lines, because things can go sideways fast. On Friday the statewide count had doubled from the day before, rocketing up from 395 to 797. At that rate, and without further curbs, this thing could spiral out of control quickly.

The staggering numbers — 797 was the highest case count in three months — were enough to get Char and Gov. David Ige before the cameras Friday to address the surge. Other stats: The seven-day new case average rose from 101 to 297 in 10 days, and the positivity rate jumped from 1.4% to 4.2% in that same span.

Char was anything but sanguine about the risks of omicron. Even if only a small percentage of patients wind up needing hospital care, she said, the rapid transmission of the virus to larger numbers of people could still lead to crowded hospital emergency rooms.

That is worrisome for a state of such limited capacity for intensive-care patients, especially on the neighbor islands, where Char had already concluded the variant had penetrated.

Leaders need to continue urging vaccinations and boosters to increase protection against the virus, as Ige did on Friday. Officials should not wait for hospitalizations to rise too much before acting, because at that point it will be too late to regain control.

For starters, the state needs to review its Safe Travels Hawaii protocols and consider requiring a booster to qualify as “fully vaccinated.” There also are testing requirements that could be layered on top of vaccines.

But omicron also may be the threshold for the residents themselves to take the reins in protecting themselves and the community. There are a few components for such a shift to take place.

One, Char rightly said, is to grasp the importance of making contingency plans. If someone is sick, even before a confirmed diagnosis, they should stay home.

Free home tests have been distributed at test sites or other venues, and continuing that would be good policy. Taking multiple tests, spaced out over days, could help detect the infection before it can spread.

However the diagnosis comes, routines will have to change. The COVID-19 household member will have to isolate. The time to plan for adjustments — who will shop for the family, run errands or take care of kids — is before illness strikes, not after, Char said.

For those who doubt the seriousness of this moment, take a look at what’s happening around the globe. Britain, just to name one example, is a country where it’s clear how fast omicron moves. The virus patterns in Europe have tended to advance the conditions in the U.S..

Is it depressingly frustrating to have this setback, just as holiday celebrations appear on the horizon?

Yes. But as it has always been, the power to head off a true calamity is in our hands, if we would only use it.