Hawaii researchers say they are expecting daily COVID-19 cases to peak sometime in the next week, followed by a peak in hospitalizations at the end of the month.

In its latest forecast the Hawaii Pandemic Applied Modeling Work Group, a volunteer group of epidemiologists and data scientists, placed the peak at anywhere between this weekend and the latter part of next week.

On Friday the state Department of Health reported three new coronavirus- related deaths — all on Oahu — and 3,099 new infections statewide, bringing the state’s totals since the start of the pandemic to 1,117 fatalities and 160,031 cases.

Daily case counts this week seemed to hold steady, with the seven-day average statewide Friday at 3,425 and the average positivity rate at about 20%.

HiPAM noted the low number of daily cases and said the observed plateau could be due to multiple reasons, including limitations in testing capacity. It could also mean the peak will be pushed back.

Like hurricane forecasts, there is a cone of uncertainty, and in the worst-case scenario, Honolulu cases would have spiked to a peak above 8,000 Friday, then dropped rapidly. The middle forecast estimates about 7,000 daily cases by Sunday. In the best-case scenario, cases rise along a gradual curve to a peak of about 5,000 cases near the end of next week.

The models use the best public data available and are not precise, according to Thomas Lee, HiPAM co-chairman. Some data, such as age and vaccination status of hospital patients, are missing or lagging. But the models are meant to serve as tools for policymakers as they consider all factors.

“Our models are meant to be defeated,” said Lee. “We don’t want to see a huge increase.”

Maui Mayor Michael Victorino, meanwhile, said during the Honolulu Star- Advertiser’s “Spotlight Hawaii” livestream program Friday that he was concerned about the surge in cases in his county, particularly for smaller isles such as Molokai and Lanai, where medical facilities are limited.

Maui County in January has experienced record numbers in daily, weekly and monthly cases so far, he said.

On Friday there were 322 new coronavirus cases on Maui and 14 on Molokai. Currently, Maui also has the highest average county positivity rate at 22%, which HiPAM noted as “most concerning.”

If positivity rates and hospitalizations continue to grow, Victorino said he would consider reducing capacity at businesses such as bars and restaurants, and perhaps even require masks outdoors as well as indoors.

He still plans to require boosters be included in an updated definition of “fully vaccinated” for access to the county’s restaurants, bars, gyms and other establishments. The new rule, initially expected to go into effect Jan. 8, was postponed until Jan. 24 to give adolescents ages 12 and up time to get boosted.

Victorino said he has been asking Gov. David Ige whether the Safe Travels program would be revised to require boosters for both visitors and returning residents to meet the definition of “fully vaccinated” and to bypass the mandatory quarantine.

“The general consensus seems to be we need to do this at a certain point before it gets really out of hand,” he said.

If the state implemented a statewide rule on boosters, he said he would defer to the state’s planned date instead.

In Hawaii, 75.1% of the state population has completed COVID-19 vaccinations, with 29.4% boosted.

In Maui County, 68% of the population has completed vaccinations, with 26% boosted.

Victorino said the county is facing staffing shortages at hospitals, which affect availability of testing and vaccines, and that he is looking forward to help from traveling nurses funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

On Friday there were 346 patients with COVID-19 hospitalized, according to the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency dashboard, down slightly from Thursday. Of those 346, 41 were in intensive care and 19 on ventilators.

Victorino said 36 patients were at Maui Memorial on Friday, with five in intensive care, and that he would be monitoring those numbers following the holiday weekend.

The HiPAM forecast is for Hawaii hospitalizations to peak at around 700, with 400 to 600 in Honolulu, by the end of the month.