How does the condition of Hawaii’s airports affect air travel? Can $246 million from the federal infrastructure bill help?

For the most part, air travelers are looking for a non-event when they arrive at a Hawaii airport. To make that possible, runways need to be maintained, an adequate number of gates relative to air traffic is needed to avoid delays, the jetway must actually work, lines for pandemic checks need to be short, and the baggage system infrastructure needs to work reliably. If all those pieces are in place, the passenger arriving in Hawaii is likely to be happy with that airport.

Infrastructure payments help in two ways. They allow Hawaii airports to get caught up on maintenance or improvement projects that might not otherwise have been in the coming year’s budget. Federal funds also reduce the fees that our airports need to charge the airlines. Those fees are then passed along to passengers in the form of higher ticket prices. Ultimately, an airport needs to strike the balance between quality of facilities and costs that ultimately the passenger pays. Federal funds make this process of balancing far easier.

What has been the impact of Southwest Airlines?

The biggest impact from Southwest’s Hawaii service has to do with interisland pricing. Southwest is known on the mainland for offering discounts to travelers who buy their tickets weeks in advance. The airline then raises ticket prices noticeably as the travel day draws nearer. Hawaiian Airlines, on the other hand, has typically kept ticket prices more constant throughout time. Since air travel is the only option for reaching other islands, this consideration for last-minute travelers makes sense. At the present time, interisland passengers get to enjoy the best of both Southwest’s and Hawaiian’s strengths. Both airlines offer the same discounts for passengers booking early, and both airlines offer the same reasonable prices (except for near-full flights) as travel day approaches.

For mainland-to-Hawaii travel, Southwest’s impact has been smaller. The scrappy Texas airline is known for cost efficiencies associated with quick turnarounds, cross-utilization of employees and efficient scheduling.

These cost advantages are difficult to leverage on a five- to six-hour transpacific crossing, however. The airlines with the cost advantage to the mainland and back are those flying the most efficient large jets that deliver the best costs per seat. Widebodies generally have the advantage here.

What is the role of smaller airlines in the Hawaii market?

In the mid-1960s, when Hawaii’s big interisland airlines switched to jets, small airlines using nine-passenger twin Cessnas took over routes that were either too thinly traveled for the big jets to operate profitably or involved a runway that was too short. At one point, 37-seat De Havilland turboprops operated by Island Air filled this gap, but as those planes reached retirement age, nine-passenger planes took back the lean route and short runway market, led by Mokulele’s single-engine, turboprop-powered Cessna Caravans. Nine-passenger planes hit the sweet spot for these lean routes. Capacity can better be adjusted to meet demand, no flight attendants are required, and then there’s the issue of the worsening pilot shortage. Larger planes require two pilots with substantial pilot experience apiece, and these pilots are in short supply. On the other hand, pilots for nine-passenger planes are plentiful because of lower hour requirements, which make these jobs attractive stepping stones for pilots hoping to one day fly jets. You now see lots of routes between Maui and the Big Island and the dominance of nine-passenger planes on lean routes is not likely to lessen any time soon.

How do you see the airline industry and tourism in Hawaii evolving?

In the short run, mainland families have been saving like never before and many are well-positioned to take a vacation to Hawaii. Between COVID-19 surges, we have seen Hawaii tourism bounce back at a rapid rate that caught many sectors off guard, particularly the car rental business. Expect an even bigger surge in demand for Hawaii tourism as mainland visitors return following the omicron surge and when international travel recovers. Hawaii tourism will likely be limited by available lodging at such times.

In the longer run, Hawaii remains the exotic vacation of choice for many mainland and international visitors. The use of Honolulu as an international hub by Hawaiian Airlines should enable that airline to continue its impressive performance hauling passengers to the islands. Interisland competition between Hawaiian and Southwest should remain strong, with neither carrier capable of muscling the other out and third carriers remaining well clear of competing head-to-head with these two popular airlines.

Could the COVID-19 pandemic cause long-term damage to the industry?

The pandemic already has adversely affected the airlines and competition. When the pandemic hit, the federal government began subsidizing jet airlines to keep them alive and avoid laying off employees. The smallest airlines were not given the same consideration, and so we saw the greatest hardship fall on small companies. Ohana Airlines stopped service in 2020 and never will restart. Even the nine-passenger carriers such as Mokulele felt the pinch. Although the aircraft size was ideal for tweaking capacity to meet demand, competition could overload a route at particular times of day, and so Mokulele and Makani Kai, both flying the same aircraft type, merged and could thereafter better control capacity when times became very lean.

Airlines require considerable investments in flight equipment. Profits disappear or become significantly reduced in times of a pandemic. Thus, newer, more-efficient aircraft will be more difficult to buy in future years.

THE BIO FILE

>> Current positions: Writer and investor

>> Past professional experience: Six years as interisland pilot in small propeller aircraft; 15 years with TWA, flying domestic and international routes; four years heading the Commercial Aviation Department for Honolulu Community College; author of “Wings of Paradise: Hawaii’s Incomparable Airlines.”

>> Personal background: Grew up in Reno, Nev., with lifelong love of flying. Kailua resident for the past 17 years along with Portuguese water dog “Iceman.” Hobbies include fitness, water sports and snow skiing. Bachelor’s degree in economics from University of California at Davis; master’s degree in English from University of Hawaii.

>> One more thing: “For more than 15 years, I put on my leather helmet and offered scenic and aerobatic rides in a Great Lakes open-cockpit biplane.”