U.S. forces in Hawaii watch China as world keeps eye on Ukraine

Thousands of American troops have deployed to NATO countries in Eastern Europe as the Russian military marches on Ukraine. But U.S. troops in Hawaii and the Pacific are continuing their missions in the region and aren’t expected to join the fray.

“U.S. Indo-Pacific Command force posture in the region has not changed, we continue to conduct routine exercises and operations,” said a INDOPACOM spokesperson.

As Russian troops massed on the border in February, Secretary of State Antony Blinken did a Pacific tour to meet with allies, including a stop in Hawaii to confer with Japanese and South Korean officials. Much of the discussions centered on China.

During Blinken’s trip the White House released its official Indo- Pacific strategy, which stated that “in a quickly changing strategic landscape, we recognize that American interests can only be advanced if we firmly anchor the United States in the Indo-Pacific.”

However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is on the minds of officials and analysts in the Pacific.

“Because China is seen as the most significant near-competitor, I would not expect decreased defense resources coming to Hawaii or U.S. facilities and deployments further west in Guam, Japan or South Korea,” said Charles Morrison, former president of the East-West Center in Manoa.

“But since the balance of power in Europe has become important again, we will probably see more defense spending, with most additional resources going to Europe,” Morrison added. “This will squeeze other U.S. discretionary spending.”

During a Feb. 24 webinar hosted by the Modern War Institute at West Point, N.Y., to explore what “irregular warfare” would look like in the Indo-Pacific Region, the events in Europe ultimately hung over the discussion.

“I think it brings a little bit of reality to a somewhat hypothetical question on the security problems throughout the Indo-Pacific region,” said U.S. Army Pacific’s Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. James Jarrard, one of the panelists in the webinar.

“I don’t think a lot of folks throughout the world really thought that President Putin would invade the Ukraine, especially with all the diplomacy that’s gone on over the last four to six weeks. But yet, he did,” Jarrard said. “So I think it will help all of us to think about the worst-case scenarios and make sure that we are prepared for those worst-case scenarios going forward here (in the Pacific).”

Tensions have simmered in the Pacific amid territorial disputes in the South China Sea, a critical trade route through which at least one-third of all global trade travels. China has claimed almost the entire region as its exclusive territory, over the objections of neighboring countries, sometimes leading to clashes at sea.

A top concern for U.S. officials is the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Over the past two years China has increased military flights into Taiwanese airspace.

During his Senate confirmation hearing in 2021, INDOPACOM Adm. John Aquilino told lawmakers asking about the prospect of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, “My opinion is this problem is much closer to us than most think.” He added that taking control of the island is the Chinese military’s “No. 1 priority.”

Beijing considers Taiwan, whose government was first established by defeated Chinese nationalists after the Chinese Civil War, to be a separatist province. Chinese President Xi Jinpeng has vowed to crush the Taiwanese government and bring the island under the control of mainland China.

However, while some commentators have suggested Russia’s onslaught in Ukraine could help set the stage for a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan, Morrison said there might also be reasons the current crisis could be giving China second thoughts.

The Russian military has suffered unexpectedly high losses, and countries around the world have condemned the Kremlin’s actions.

“Despite nationalistic discussion on (Chinese) mainland social media, the spirited Ukrainian resistance and the significant impact of the Western sanctions should be sobering to the Chinese government,” Morrison said. “Chinese prosperity depends much more than Russia’s on Western markets, and unlike Russia, China depends on vulnerable energy supplies from overseas.”

China and Russia have been pursuing closer trade and military ties in recent years in a bid to challenge the United States. In October the Russian and Chinese navies held their first-ever joint patrols in the Sea of Japan, and officials announced Russia’s Pacific Fleet would get four new submarines.

Chinese President Xi Jinpeng and Putin also have frequently backed each other politically when confronted with concerns about crackdowns on dissidents and other human rights concerns, accusing Western countries of hypocrisy.

But Morrison described China and Russia’s relationship as a “quasi-alliance” that has now put Beijing in an “awkward position.” Though he said China has been an enabler of sorts of the invasion, in abstaining from a vote on a U.N. reso­lution condemning Russia’s actions, it’s telling that China has not openly voiced support for the invasion of Ukraine.

China has made investments in Ukraine and brought it into Beijing’s “Belt and Road Initiative,” a series of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects aimed at promoting trade ties with China.

“I suspect the Chinese did not want the invasion and are surprised that Putin actually launched it,” Morrison said.

Though China has been the main emphasis for U.S. policymakers when it comes to Pacific issues, Russia is also an important player in the region with its own interests. It has also maintained a sizable Pacific fleet and key trading relationships across Asia as a major weapons and oil exporter.

Russia has frequently spied on facilities and training exercises in Hawaii, the nerve center for U.S. military operations in the region. Most recently, the U.S. military tracked a spy ship off Hawaii in January.

Between June 7 and 24, the Russian navy’s Pacific Fleet held its largest exercise since the end of the Cold War just west of Hawaii. The exercise included several aircraft, prompting the Hawaii National Guard to scramble F-22 fighter jets when Russian warplanes reportedly flew close to Hawaii’s airspace — though U.S. military officials said none were actually intercepted and that the Russian exercise stayed within international waters.

INDOPACOM says it tracks all vessels in its area of operations through patrols by aircraft, ships and other assets in the region.

“We operate in accordance with international law of the sea and in the air to ensure that all nations can do the same without fear or contest and in order to secure a free and open Indo- Pacific,” said the INDOPACOM spokesperson. “If Russia operates within the region, they are expected to do so in accordance with international law.”

On Feb. 13 the Russian defense ministry claimed that during planned military drills, its Pacific fleet detected a U.S. Navy Virginia- class submarine in Russian territorial waters near the Kuril Islands, where Russia maintains naval bases in the northern Pacific. U.S. officials denied the claim.

INDOPACOM declined to discuss whether it has seen a change in disposition of Russian forces in the Pacific.

“As a matter of operational security, we do not discuss intelligence reports,” said the command’s spokesperson.

Publicly available information through open-source tracking software shows the Russian Pacific Fleet’s flagship, the cruiser Varyag, set sail from Vladivostok in December and entered the Mediterranean Sea in early February. Video on social media also shows military units based in Russia’s Far East making their way west toward Ukraine.

U.S. officials have warned that Russia could initiate cyberattacks in retaliation for recent sanctions levied on Russia. However, INDOPACOM said it had no immediate concerns at this time in Hawaii.

Frank Pace, administrator of the Hawaii Office of Homeland Security, said Wednesday in a news release that “while there is no specific, credible threat to Hawaii at this time, we encourage all organizations — regardless of size — to heed the Department of Homeland Security’s recommendations and adopt a heightened posture when it comes to cybersecurity and protecting their most critical assets.”