Sjarif Goldstein: It takes all kinds to bust a bracket

Now that Major League Baseball’s lockout has ended, we’ll soon be able to focus on the sport formerly known as “the national pastime” again. But real games are still 24 days away, so for the next three weekends all eyes will be on the NCAA Tournament. And primarily for the same reason that the NFL has become America’s most-watched sport: gambling.

According to the American Gaming Association, 40 million Americans fill out 70 million brackets each year for the NCAA Tournament. March Madness provides some of the most exciting moments of the sports year — games turning on one final shot, small schools upending national powers — on its own, but add in the prize money on the line in the millions of NCAA pools being run and our interest becomes much more intense.

For my part, I’ve been playing in tourney pools since I was on the staff of the UH newspaper — Ka Leo O Hawaii — some three decades ago, and I’ve filled out a bracket almost every year since. Most of the past 25 years I’ve run the office pool, and seeing (and hand-scoring) hundreds of brackets has given me some insights that the average entrant who fills it and forgets it can’t possibly pick up.

I don’t have advice for you that will guarantee you a win, but I can help you pick smarter.

First of all, know your competition.

In the hundreds of brackets I’ve perused over those three decades, 90% of entrants fall into one of the following categories:

>> The expert — They watch lots of games all season long. They know Murray State from Montana State and Longwood from Loyola-Chicago. They can tell you which team has the 3-point shooting that is “so vital to a team’s chances come tourney time.” You can ignore these people, because they never win the pool. That’s just the nature of the one-and-done: It’s unpredictable. There’s no logic to what happens, so a little knowledge can be dangerous. And overestimating your knowledge will kill your bracket. The NCAA estimates that there is about a 1 in 120 million chance of filling out a perfect bracket if you know something about basketball, but there is about a 1 in 1 chance that someone in your pool will take pride in the 14 seed they project to reach the Final Four, only to see them lose in the first round.

Actually, let me walk back for a second my advice to ignore them. Pay attention to them when they pompously predict that 14 seed will make the Final Four … and then rib them mercilessly.

>> The sports fan — These folks follow sports but not college basketball. They know about things like the historical trend of at least one 12 seed beating a 5 seed every year, so they blindly pick a 12 seed or two that they’ve heard some buzz about. It’s hilarious when they pick the wrong ones and wind up blowing all the 5 vs. 12 matchups. And 2018, when none of the 12 seeds won? Well, that was truly beautiful. That said, these folks are a bit of a threat, because they tend to “know what they do not know” and do some research on what the real “experts” think before filling out a bracket.

>> The chalk — This has nothing to do with perennial power Kansas (“Rock Chalk, Jayhawk”) and everything to do with being gutless. Believe it or not, some people just pick all 1 seeds to reach the Final Four. Where’s the fun in that? Sure, you give yourself a good chance of getting more Final Four teams than anyone else, but you give yourself almost no chance of getting all the Final Four teams correct. Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985 — meaning that even 1 seeds had to win four games to reach the national semifinals — only once have all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four. And only five other times have three of the four No. 1 seeds made it. Everyone wants to pick some upsets, but these folks can’t make up their minds. Because the draw almost never goes chalk, these people are generally not a threat either.

>> The alum — I understand these people, because who wants to cheer against their favorite team? Heck, the last time the Rainbow Warriors made the field, I picked them to win two rounds. But any time you let emotion factor into your picking, you’re hurting yourself. That said, this can come through if you went to a good enough basketball school.

>> The “everyone else is playing, so why not?” crowd — These people know so little that they’re actually dangerous. They think Gonzaga is still a cute, little underdog and they pick the Bulldogs for fun. Of course, it just so happens that picking the Zags has been pretty sound the past few years even as they’ve made the move to national power. Gonzaga, the top overall seed this year, has reached the title game in two of the past four tournaments. These folks are the heart of the NCAA pool, so while a given one of them may not have much of a chance, there are so many that the odds are good that one of them will wind up winning.

Knowing your competition also includes knowing how many entries you’re competing with. The more brackets that are filled out — for example, global websites such as ESPN that have millions of entries — the more it makes sense to stray from just picking favorites, because there will be lots of entrants who go with high seeds.

Second, know the scoring.

If the pool you’re in rewards picking upsets, then go heavy on those. If there are big bonuses for picking Final Four teams, it’s smart to be a little chalky. In the 36 tournaments since the field went to 64 or more, 83% of Final Four teams have been top-four seeds.

Most of all, make picks that you believe in. If you really like Duke to win it all, don’t be scared off by the fact that 11 of the past 14 champions have been No. 1 seeds. Otherwise you’ll hate yourself if the Blue Devils do come through on that 8 to 9% chance Vegas oddsmakers say they have of sending coach Mike Krzyzewski out a champion. (And if you hate Duke, like I do, don’t pick Duke, because even if they win you’ll hate it.)

One last tip: With the Rainbow Wahine in the NCAAs this year, try running a women’s pool, even if it’s just for small money. It can keep you interested in that tourney, which runs on some of the men’s days off.