Somewhat average hurricane ’22 season is forecast, company says

In an early look at the 2022 hurricane season, a Honolulu climate forecasting and risk management firm is predicting an average to below-­average year for the Central Pacific.

However, the company’s climate model is showing a slightly higher probability of hurricanes coming closer to the islands this year.

Climatologist Brendan Lane Larson, co-founder and CEO of AbsoluteClimo LLC, said the company’s global climate model is forecasting a season in which the Central Pacific basin will experience one or two hurricanes from June to November. The long-term annual average number of hurricanes in the Central Pacific is two.

The forecast predicts only storms with top winds of 74 miles per hour or greater — Category 1 hurricanes — and does not include tropical cyclones of lesser intensity — tropical depressions and tropical storms.

The company’s hurricane tracker forecast offers a Hawaii focus that indicates Hawaii island, Kauai, Niihau and the Papahanaumo- kuakea Marine National Monument area northwest of the main islands are at “modestly higher risk in 2022” than Oahu and the islands of Maui County.

The National Weather Serv­ice’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center has not yet issued its forecast for the six-month season. That usually happens in May. The long-term average of tropical cyclones of all intensities in the Central Pacific is four to five.

AbsoluteClimo’s forecast is based on the company’s own global climate and artificial-intelligence modeling system and is used commercially to help its clients to conduct disaster and financial planning related to weather risk.

Larson is somewhat vague about the finer details of the forecast, in part because of the proprietary nature of the technology and the exclusive access paying clients have to it. The company’s main forecast focuses on hurricanes because they tend to have the greatest impact.

He said the model looks at the strength and location of oceanic anomalies in sea surface temperatures and wind shear, among other things.

Usually when sea surface temperatures are higher than normal and the usual wind shear (opposing upper-level winds) is weak in the Central Pacific, the islands are more vulnerable to hurricanes.

“Climatologically speaking, our 2022 forecast is relatively overall good news,” Larson said.

But everyone in Hawaii should still prepare for the season with emergency supplies, he said, as the risk is always there. The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency recommends preparing a two-week kit of nonperishable food, water and other necessities.

Absolute­Climo’s hurricane forecast further differs from the National Weather Service’s because it is more Hawaii-specific and the company’s climate model is less reliant on El Nino and La Nina weather patterns. Larson called the ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) weather pattern “overrated” as a primary hurricane-­forecasting tool.

“Once in a great while, ENSO can be somewhat useful, but it is usually not,” he said.

If 2022 does produce a below-­average hurricane season, it will be the fourth straight year the Central Pacific has experienced a lackluster season. Meanwhile, the Atlantic season has been quite active during that period, causing nearly $200 billion in hurricane damage.

AbsoluteClimo, established in Honolulu in 2016, was the first to forecast an intense storm event for Hawaii during December, and the prediction was spot-on when a Kona low raked the islands Dec. 5-7.