The number of COVID-19 infections in Hawaii continues to grow as summer approaches, according to the latest numbers from the state Department of Health.
DOH reported the state’s seven-day average of new cases at 485 on Wednesday, representing the sixth consecutive weekly increase. The state’s average positivity rate, meanwhile, jumped to 11.5% from 9.1% last week, representing the seventh weekly increase in a row.
“It’s the sixth straight week of increasing numbers,” said Gov. David Ige during his appearance on the Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s “Spotlight Hawaii” livestream program Wednesday. “That’s a concern.”
When it comes to the average positivity rate, however, Ige said the state was still figuring out how it should be calibrated, particularly since results from home test kits are not reported.
“It is a high number — that’s a real concern,” Ige said. “That tells us that there is a lot of virus in the community. But I don’t think it’s the same as a 10% or 12% positivity 12 months ago.”
The higher rates have not, so far, translated into a dramatically higher number of COVID-19 patients in hospital beds or intensive care.
On Wednesday the state’s HI-EMA dashboard reported 66 patients with COVID-19 in hospitals, up from 51 last week. Seven of the patients were in intensive care and three on ventilators. Last week, only two were in ICU and two on ventilators.
On April 27 Ige announced the state was shifting its response to the pandemic from emergency mode to managing it as it would other diseases that health care providers diagnose and treat.
Some health experts are hopeful Hawaii’s high vaccination rates — 77.4% vaccinated and 39.3% boosted — and levels of immunity from previous infection will prevent a surge as large as the one driven by the original omicron variant in the winter.
“We do have reasons to be hopeful that more cases does not mean a large burden of critical illness and death,” said State Epidemiologist Dr. Sarah Kemble during last week’s news conference.
Ige on Wednesday noted that while there has been an increase in hospitalizations, it’s significantly less than during the delta surge or initial omicron surge.
“We’re not seeing as many patients in ICU units,” he said. “Overall, I think we’re in a very good position right now.”
But COVID-19 cases are expected to continue increasing statewide due to more contagious omicron subvariants such as BA.2 and its descendants, BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1, which drove up cases in New York last month and have now been confirmed in Hawaii.
The Hawaii Pandemic Applied Modeling Work Group expects COVID-19 cases in all major counties to continue rising well into mid-May.
HiPAM, a group of volunteer epidemiologists and data scientists, forecasts daily coronavirus cases on Oahu reaching as high as 3,600 in the worst-case scenario and up to 640 in the best-case scenario in mid-May. It could also settle in between at about 1,800 cases.
HiPAM said there are likely several times more cases than reported by the state due to a large number of people who are asymptomatic or experiencing mild symptoms, along with home tests that are not counted. But people are getting reinfected due to waning immunity.
So HiPAM factored in unreported cases and reinfections, along with the impacts of BA.2, among other factors, into its mathematical models.
Hospitalizations — although forecast to rise in two weeks — are not expected to rise to very high levels. HiPAM forecasts just 18 hospitalizations in the best-case scenario and slightly more than 100 in the worst-case scenario in mid-May.
HiPAM said its numbers are lower because it only counted patients admitted for COVID-19, not those admitted for other reasons who later tested positive.
In line with CDC findings, HiPAM also estimated that as of mid-April, 60% of Oahu’s population was infected with the coronavirus.
On Wednesday, DOH reported 4,249 new COVID-19 infections over the previous week, bringing the total since the start of the pandemic to 252,654. The seven-day average of 485 is expected to grow higher after lagging test results are added in.
There were also 10 more deaths, bringing the total to 1,428.
Nationally, new cases are averaging nearly 62,000 per day, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID Data Tracker, and hospital admissions are rising slightly but average deaths are declining.
Ige’s emergency proclamation for the pandemic expired March 25 and with it, the state’s indoor mask mandate. He has signaled no intention of bringing it back.
“We all know what we need to do to keep our community safe,” Ige said on Wednesday. “Wear a mask, get vaccinated and boosted for those who are eligible. That’s the best thing we can do to slow the spread of COVID.”
Ige said he continues to wear a mask indoors and at the airport even though it’s no longer required.
