Republican representation in the state House of Representatives has dropped to the lowest level that veteran Republican Rep. Gene Ward has ever seen, while the City Council could maintain its conservative numbers along with a self-described “conservative-leaning” mayor.
Two out of four House Republicans ended the legislative session this month by joining nine other representatives who announced they will not seek reelection. Rep. Bob McDermott (R, Ewa Beach-Iroquois Point) is running for U.S. Senate, and Rep. Val Okimoto (R, Mililani- Mililani Mauka-Waipio Acres) is running for the nonpartisan City Council.
Anything can happen in this year’s elections, when all 25 Senate and 51 House seats — and four of nine Council seats — are on the ballot.
But if the current breakdown of two Republican House members and one senator continues, GOP representation in the House would be cut in half, decreasing “an alternative to what is a supermajority,” said Ward (R, Hawaii Kai-Kalama Valley), who has served off and on for 12 terms and is seeking reelection.
“A hundred years ago the Republicans owned and ran everything,” Ward said. “Now 100 years later the Democrats own and run everything.”
It was back in the 1990s, Ward remembers, that the number of Republican representatives dropped to only three.
If they’re reelected, the two House Republicans — Ward and Rep. Lauren Matsumoto (R, Mililani-Schofield- Kunia) — could have outsize voices since minority members are ensured a seat on every legislative committee, he said.
So Matsumoto and Ward could likely divide serving on the House’s 18 standing committees, Ward said.
“It could be an advantage,” Ward said.
Matsumoto did not respond to a request for comment.
The number of House Republicans had increased to just below 20 when former state Rep. Lynn Finnegan was elected in 2000 and served until 2010, a period that saw the election in 2002 of Republican Gov. Linda Lingle, who served two terms.
Finnegan now chairs the Republican Party of Hawaii, which has scheduled its convention for today at the Hawai‘i Convention Center.
She suspects that Republican representation in the House began falling off when Republican attention was focused on getting Lingle elected and then reelected.
Now — with only two Republican representatives and Sen. Kurt Fevella (R, Ewa Beach-Iroquois Point) the lone Republican in the Senate — Finnegan hopes that Republican strategists, donors and voters feel a sense of urgency to get more Republicans elected — through the Aug. 13 party primary election and Nov. 8 general election — especially new and younger Republicans.
“We have great candidates running for office, but we have to remember they’re fresh and new to politics and campaigning,” Finnegan said.
The Council also will see turnover, driven by term limits, that could result in a new generation of conservative members.
Council member Heidi Tsuneyoshi is running for governor as a Republican. Andria Tupola, who ran for governor on the Republican ticket in 2018, is not up for reelection this term, but is working as a consultant for Council candidate Makuakai Rothman, a professional surfer, and Keone Simon, according to their campaign finance reports.
Okimoto and Simon are running for the seat being vacated by Council member Brandon Elefante. The seat held by conservative- leaning Council member Augie Tulba is not up for election.
Okimoto acknowledged that she will have more weight as one of nine Council members, compared with one of four Republicans in the 51-seat House.
Not being identified as a Republican on the Council will help her be effective, Okimoto told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser.
“I think that having this nonpartisan level and nonpartisan platform and position is to me the best way to address the needs of the people in our communities,” she said. “Partisan labels definitely can and have been a distraction, or a hindrance or obstacle. … People assume that because I am right now a Republican, that I’m only going to vote a certain way. And I think that they’ll learn quickly, if they haven’t, you know, notice that I’m not just going to be a rubber stamp either way.”
On the Council, Okimoto said, “You can make your decision based on the information you have, and vote your conscience based on the people that are entrusting you with their votes. And that’s what I’ve done the last four years and what I plan to continue to do.”
Finnegan, chair of the Republican Party of Hawaii, said the conservative message of candidates such as Okimoto appeals to voters when they run as nonpartisan candidates.
“Hawaii can elect people according to their values, without looking at necessarily the party stamp,” Finnegan said. “They will resonate more with Republican values than Democratic values.”
Political analyst Neal Milner cannot recall a period of island politics when there were so many conservatives running Honolulu Hale and so few in the state Legislature.
The transition between Republican and Democratic dominance began with the return of nisei soldiers after the end of World War II.
The Democratic revolution, led by Gov. John A. Burns and Lt. Gov. Tom Gill, included a new generation of Democrats, most notably U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye, whose influence is still felt in the current generation of Democratic politicians.
Today, Republicans in the Legislature have to rely more on personal relationships than political ideology to get things done, Milner said.
Future Republican victories in Hawaii also could be hampered by conflicts over whether to embrace a political style shared by supporters of former President Donald Trump, Milner said.
“The levels of conspiracy theories about (the election being stolen) is pretty low here,” Milner said.
Colin Moore, director of the University of Hawaii’s Public Policy Center, downplays the significance of reducing the number of House Republicans to two from four.
“At this point I don’t think it matters … and it shows the shrinking influence of the Republican Party in Hawaii, but it was already minuscule,” he said.
Moore worries that the current number of legislative Republicans could be “a dangerous thing for democracy.”
“The dangerous thing is if they go to four to two to zero and then you have no opposition party,” Moore said. “You need that give and take, you need the loyal opposition. … The Republican Party here in Hawaii has been strong on good-governance issues and transparency. I give them credit for that.”
In a follow-up text to the Star-Advertiser, Ward said one of his biggest legislative achievements was a floor amendment to postpone legislators’ automatic pay raises of $12,000 in January 2021, which are now scheduled to go into effect in January.
“I guess you could call this my most fiscally impacting piece of legislation because the pay increase was hugely unpopular and during COVID when everyone was hurting losing jobs and being laid off,” Ward wrote.
For now, until the upcoming elections, Moore and others find it curious that there are so few Republicans in the Legislature and disproportionately more on the Council and in the mayor’s office — perhaps because of the nonpartisan designation for Council members.
“That ‘R’ is the kiss of death in Hawaii politics, but people with conservative views can have success,” Moore said. “It’s that brand, rather than conservative ideology, that voters reject.”
