The forecast for a dry summer has been borne out, with below-normal rainfall seen across the islands. Dry conditions are expected to persist for at least the next couple of months, raising concern about the potential for a surge in wildfires.

The good news is that water consumption is down 5% on Oahu, according to the Honolulu Board of Water Supply, and it appears likely that mandatory water restrictions will not be necessary this summer.

“We’re trending down and we’re very happy about that,” said Kathleen Elliott- Pahinui, the agency’s spokesperson.

While the latest numbers show there was more pumping in June over the previous month, the latest figures are below what they were in 2021 at this time and also below the department’s five-year rolling average.

“It shows that our (conservation) message is getting out there,” she said. “And we’re hoping it will continue into August and September.”

The Board of Water Supply in March called for its customers to voluntarily reduce consumption by 10% following the loss of a key source of city water due to the Navy Red Hill water contamination crisis.

Barring a dramatic jump in water use in July, “we’re cautiously optimistic” that mandatory restrictions will not be needed for the rest of the summer, Elliott-Pahinui said.

Meanwhile, drought continues to worsen across the islands with abnormally dry conditions having spread to about two-thirds of the state. Only East Hawaii and Kona on the Big Island, plus a small section of Maui and Molokai, have been spared drought designation by the U.S. Drought Monitor.

But weather officials warn the conditions are likely to worsen everywhere in the next couple of months.

All regions of Oahu are already experiencing drought conditions, and pockets of severe and extreme drought have cropped up in the leeward sides of several islands.

Rainfall in Kahului and Hilo is running nine inches below normal from the start of the year, and other sites are also below normal.

”Generally speaking I think the drought picture is about where I was expecting it to be. Perhaps a bit better on the Big Island, though there’s still a ways to go in the dry season,” National Weather Service hydrologist Kevin Kodama said in an email.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center also predicted below-normal precipitation through the dry season and said it might last into the early part of the next wet season.

The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency on Thursday tweeted out all the latest Drought Monitor maps in an effort to heighten awareness of the situation.

“We are an all-hazard agency, and we are uncomfortably aware of the threat of wildfire,” said Adam Weintraub, HI-EMA spokesman.

He said officials are hoping people take the opportunity to do what they can to reduce the risk of fire, including clearing combustible materials and vegetation around homes.

Officials say the total land area that burns each year in Hawaii is equal to or greater than the proportion burned of any other U.S. state.

Part of the problem, they said, is that there is an increasing amount of non- native, fire-prone grasses and shrubs in Hawaii that are more vulnerable to wildfire in the warming, drying climate.

It was in late July 2021 that a wildfire burned more than 40,000 acres on Hawaii island in what may have been the largest brush fire in Hawaii County’s history. The blaze destroyed two homes and prompted the evacuation of three communities, including Waikoloa Village.

Drought Monitor Map by Honolulu Star-Advertiser