Democratic Lt. Gov. Josh Green and former Republican Lt. Gov. James “Duke” Aiona are the Nov. 8 general election candidates to become Hawaii’s next governor after Saturday night’s overwhelming party primary election victories.
Green had been the Democratic front-runner in terms of fundraising, endorsements and Honolulu Star-Advertiser Hawaii Poll approval ratings — even after U.S. Rep. Kai Kahele joined the race in May. Kahele badly trailed in third place behind Green and Vicky Cayetano, a business entrepreneur and former first lady.
Green thanked family, friends and supporters Saturday night.
“We say to you now, please carry us across the finish line this fall,” Green said. “We welcome every one.”
Aiona scored a commanding victory over Republican gubernatorial hopefuls BJ Penn, a Ultimate Fighting Championship Hall of Famer with a criminal record, and Honolulu Council member Heidi Tsuneyoshi, who gave up a chance of Council reelection to run for governor. Tsuneyoshi trailed badly in third place.
Aiona thanked Penn, Tsuneyoshi and other Republican candidates who stood for election.
The final days of the Democratic primary had been unusually testy, with Cayetano and Kahele raising questions about funding for Green’s limited liability corporations but alleging no wrongdoing, among other issues.
What made this year’s Democratic primary unusual “was that it got so personal, so nasty,” said Colin Moore, director of the University of Hawaii’s Public Policy Center. “It wasn’t about policy. Certainly the animosity between Green and Kahele is more than politics. There’s personal anger there. That led to more aggressive exchanges, whether it (was) pushing harder for details of Green’s sources of income or Green calling Kahele a slum lord. Vicky (tried) to take advantage of it but there was a super PAC supporting her that took some pretty sharp jabs at Green. These are really attacks about people’s integrity, their honesty, their character. That’s somewhat unusual. There have always been some shady groups sending out mailers and vicious rumors swirling. But these are mostly coming out of the candidates’ mouths.”
Green and Kahele had previously served together in the state Senate as allies, representing different parts of Hawaii island.
Based on Saturday night’s returns, Moore said the “really hardball mainland tactics,” for the most part, failed to alter the race.
Cayetano positioned herself as a successful entrepreneur with an outsider’s perspective to governing but her message did not gain widespread traction, said political analyst Neal Milner.
“Vicky Cayetano has tried to make the argument that she’s a fresh face, the ‘I’m not a politician’ argument,” Milner said. “People say they want it but it seldom works in Hawaii.”
Kahele gave up what appeared to be certain reelection to Congress to announce his run for governor in May. Now his — and Tsuneyoshi’s — political futures are uncertain.
“I don’t know where Kai Kahele goes from here,” Milner said. “He did not help his candidacy by not performing well.”
Moore said: “Maybe he’s done with politics. I don’t think Kai Kahele knows. He’s an unpredictable figure.”
And Tsuneyoshi’s political future is even cloudier.
“It’s going to be harder for Heidi,” Moore said. “Now that she’s run as a Republican, people know she’s a Republican and holds pretty conservative views. I don’t think she got the kind of reception she expected. The publicity she hoped to generate did not pan out.”
Aiona joined the Republican primary campaign for governor on the final day to file papers.
In Hawaii’s 2018 primary election — before all mail-in balloting — 286,180 votes were cast, representing 38.6% of eligible voters.
In Saturday’s first election results of the night, 276,591 votes were cast, representing 32.4% of eligible voters.
Some 276,008 votes — or 32.3% of eligible votes — were cast through mail-in ballots, compared to just 583 — or 0.1% — of in-person votes that were counted initially Saturday night.
For Saturday’s primary, Moore expected that 350,000 votes will be counted in total when the votes are finally tallied this morning.
The Republican primary was seen as a referendum on where Republican voters in Hawaii stand in 2020 with Aiona, Penn and Tsuneyoshi appealing to different factions of GOP voters.
Aiona has twice won the Republican primary for governor only to lose back-to-back to Gov. Neil Abercrombie and Gov. David Ige. He continues to campaign on his background and faith in Christian values.
Although they campaigned separately, Green appeared headed to the Nov. 8 general election with likely running mate state Rep. Sylvia Luke, who was leading early election returns for the Democratic party’s lieutenant governor candidate over former Honolulu Council Chair Ikaika Anderson.
Aiona appeared likely to campaign with the likely Republican lieutenant governor primary winner, Seaula Tupai Jr., who was leading in early returns.
Democratic voters also had the choice of gubernatorial candidates David L. “Duke” Bourgoin, Richard Kim, Clyde McClain “Mac” Lewman and Van K. Tanabe.
Also running in the Republican Party primary were Gary Cordery, George “Big Al” Hawat, Keline Kahau, Lynn Barry Mariano, Paul Morgan, Moses “Momo” Paskowitz and Walter Woods.
Caleb K. Nazara and Keleionalani Taylor were running as nonpartisan candidates.
Green’s approval ratings soared as he became a leading voice for Hawaii’s COVID-19 response despite periods of confusion and uncertainty and sometime disagreements with his boss, Gov. David Ige. Ige is barred by term limits from seeking a third consecutive term.
A new law that goes into effect on Nov. 1, just before the Nov. 8 general election, prevents Hawaii’s next governor and four county mayors from holding second jobs.
Green works weekend shifts at Kona Community Hospital and previously told the Star-Advertiser that he plans to continue volunteering his medical services for free — especially in rural communities around Hawaii — and continue to organize medical missions to places such as the Philippines and Samoa that have strong connections to Hawaii.
On the Republican side, 48% of Republican primary voters told the Hawaii Poll last month that they would pick Aiona — a former deputy prosecutor, judge and two-term lieutenant governor under former Gov. Linda Lingle.
Penn followed Aiona, with 26% of the Republican voters polled choosing him. Tsuneyoshi trailed with 9%.
Penn’s name recognition is enormous among Republican voters.
Only 4% of Republican voters do not recognize his name, according to the Hawaii Poll, compared with 12% of Republicans who do not recognize Aiona’s name.
At the same time, the percentage of Democratic voters who do not recognize Green’s name fell from 7% in January to just 2% in July.
