Hawaii’s gubernatorial race should be cordial unless it becomes close

The campaign to become Hawaii’s next governor should be a genial contest compared with the testy Democratic Party primary gubernatorial campaign — unless the race suddenly tightens between Lt. Gov. Josh Green and former Lt. Gov. James “Duke” Aiona ahead of the Nov. 8 general election.

If Republican Party interests on the mainland sense the likelihood that Aiona could be elected governor, then Colin Moore — director of the University of Hawaii’s Public Policy Center — expects to see super PACs from both parties pour so-called dark money into nasty campaigning across the islands.

Neither Green nor Aiona is likely to say anything particularly personal about the other either during debates or on the campaign trail, Moore said. But PACs supporting either candidate could make all kinds of allegations if they jump into the election in a big way over the next two months, he said.

Saturday night’s primary election results suggest a big challenge for Aiona against Green, who has been the consistent front-runner in terms of fundraising, endorsements and approval ratings measured by the Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s Hawaii Poll.

Aiona — who is now making his third run for the governor’s office —received 37,159 Republican Party primary votes Saturday, or 49.7% of the ballots cast for the GOP gubernatorial candidates.

By comparison, Green received a whopping 156,756 Democratic Party primary votes, or 62.9%.

“I am the underdog,” Aiona told the Star-Advertiser on Sunday following his Republican primary victory. “I relish challenges. And I look forward to this, the third time in the saddle, so to speak.”

The new challenge for both Aiona and Green is convincing supporters of former Democratic gubernatorial candidates U.S. Rep. Kai Kahele and Vicky Cayetano to vote for them in the general election.

Moore and political analyst Neal Milner do not expect Green or Aiona to come out slinging mud.

“It should be relatively low-key and pleasant,” Moore said.

“Aiona’s probably going to double down on his strategy of presenting himself as a senior statesman, the kupuna in the room, because that’s his brand,” Moore said. “Duke Aiona going on the attack would seem strange to people, and that’s probably to his advantage.”

Green likely will focus on what his administration would do for the people of Hawaii, while surrogates might try to link Aiona to the mainland Republican brand “that has embraced restrictions on abortion and has largely become the party of Donald Trump,” Moore said.

Milner said Green and Aiona are likely critical of one another and their policies, “but in their heart of hearts neither one of them are mudslingers.”

Aiona told the Star- Advertiser that he plans to challenge Green on the issue of Democratic dominance in Hawaii, which Aiona thinks led to ongoing corruption scandals and bribery allegations and convictions of former state legislators, city officials and the former police chief and former city prosecutor, among charges aimed at campaign donors.

“And I do want to stick to the issues that are long- standing,” Aiona said, such as the need for more affordable housing and reducing homelessness.

“I’m not going to try to disparage somebody,” Aiona said. “The last thing I’m going to do is run a commercial like some of these PACs did (in the Democratic primary races).”

Aiona suspects that Democratic attack ads over the last three weeks of the primary turned off voters.

“People said, ‘I’ve had enough of this stuff. I’m not interested in voting,’” Aiona said. “That has to change from some of our candidates. We’ve got to change this culture.”

Separate PAC campaigns were aimed at state Rep. Sylvia Luke, who won Saturday’s night’s Democratic primary for lieutenant governor, and former state Sen. Jill Tokuda, who won the Democratic primary for Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District seat to represent rural Oahu and the neighbor islands.

Luke had been mired in a tight campaign with no clear front-runner but ended up winning with 87,061 votes, compared with 66,802 for former Council Chair Ikaika Anderson.

Tokuda won her congressional primary with 61,872 votes, compared with 26,871 for former first-time state Rep. Patrick Branco.

“The main thing to learn about ‘dark money’ is that it has worked in the past but it didn’t work this time,” Milner said. “We can say that Hawaii’s voters might have been sufficiently offended by them to vote for Sylvia, in particular. So it may have backfired. It probably didn’t hurt Branco as much because he was so far behind.”

If the voting pattern for Green and Aiona remains relatively stable, Milner does not expect the practice of “red box” messaging to continue on candidates’ websites through November, which lets them avoid directly communicating with PACs, which is illegal.

“You’re not going to need the red boxes,” Milner said. “There are other ways of reminding voters of what national Republicans are like on the mainland and labeling them as Trump supporters.”

At the Democratic Party’s traditional post-election “Unity Breakfast” on Sunday morning at the Japanese Cultural Center of Hawaii, Luke told the Star-Advertiser that a “mudslinging campaign doesn’t resonate with voters. … I had so many people who came up to me just to say they voted for me because of the negative attacks.”

Tokuda told the Star- Advertiser at the breakfast that “we have to make sure that this kind of campaign has no place in Hawaii.”

The solution, Tokuda said, is that “we outlaw it. We overturn Citizens United (the Supreme Court decision that cleared the way for Super PACs). … We can really cry foul, and I will, on those dark-money Super PACs that came in here trying to influence elections. But I also know that I have an obligation and responsibility to also make sure that people know that for me the race has always been about them.”

Gov. David Ige told the Star-Advertiser that Hawaii voters are “not swayed by all of that misleading (advertising). You know it’s really sad because I do believe that the amount of super PAC money is starting to exceed the candidates’ money, and you know the primary difference in the super PACs is that there is nobody accountable. When I decide to run an ad against my opponent, I have to take responsibility. These super PACs have no responsibility, and I think the voters are fed up with it and they said, ‘Absolutely not.’”

Lynn Finnegan, Hawaii Republican Party chair, said in a statement Sunday that the GOP fielded a record 102 Hawaii candidates, “which helped to get our message out across the State that Hawaii’s people need balanced representation, trust in their government, and resolution to the many crises facing us; the high cost of living, a severe shortage of housing, increasing crime rates, and corruption in government at every level.”

Out of the 102 candidates, the Republican Party will continue to support 69 campaigns working to win in the general election, including 22 state Senate and 42 state House candidates.

“Every election, we hear the same promises from Democrats — economic relief to our struggling families, better education for our Keiki, a solution to our homeless and housing epidemic,” Finnegan wrote. “But nothing in Hawaii has gotten better. The only hope for Hawai’i is to vote for leadership that will expose corruption, hold Democrats accountable for their unkept promises, and work together to resolve our most pressing issues.

“The battle for Republicans may be uphill, but it’s one that we know is worth fighting. Our families, faith, and our freedom are worth fighting for.”

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Star-Advertiser staff writer Peter Boylan contributed to this report.