Anybody want to guess who is atop the NFL’s list in passer rating?
You’ll probably never get it without looking it up, so I’ll tell you.
It’s Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers’ new running back. He’s thrown one pass, Sunday for a 34-yard touchdown. That gives him a 158.3 passer rating. It’s the highest you can get in the formula that seems to have come from the MIT chalkboard in “Good Will Hunting.”
Yes, that’s a trick question … the NFL passing stats include everyone who has thrown a pass this season — even one who hasn’t. If you go to the bottom of the list, you’ll see Davante Adams; the Raiders’ star receiver is credited for having absorbed a sack for 10 yards, earning him a passer rating of 0.
While savoring the bar-bet beer you win with those nuggets, you can lay this less trivial knowledge on your pau hana drinking buddy: The leader among actual quarterbacks is Tua Tagovailoa, at 112.7.
Patrick Mahomes is second, followed in order by Geno Smith, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow.
In case you’re curious about Marcus Mariota, he is 13th at 92.7 — one spot behind the guy who took his job at Tennessee, Ryan Tannehill — but just ahead of Tom Brady and Justin Herbert.
In 1973, the NFL was ahead of its time when it crunched statistical data to come up with the passer rating formula. It uses completions, yards, touchdowns and interceptions per pass attempt as variables. Apparently, the formula has stood the test of time, because it remains the stat the league uses to determine its best passer.
Mahomes is No. 1 all-time in career passer rating, followed by Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers. The only retiree among the all-time top 10 is Drew Brees, who stopped playing just two years ago. If that’s not enough to tell you how much the game has changed, how about this: Joe Montana is 21st, one behind Kyler Murray and one ahead of Derek Carr.
If you want something more complicated, and perhaps more modern, go to PFF.com. Pro Football Focus grades every player on every play from seemingly every imaginable angle.
PFF also has Tagovailoa ranked at No. 1 among NFL quarterbacks in passing this season. But, with running plays factored in, Tagovailoa is third, behind Allen and Smith. Mariota’s offense is evaluated as 20th among the league’s quarterbacks by PFF.
Then there’s ESPN’s Total QBR. According to this grading system, Tagovailoa is No. 1 so far this season, and Mariota is at No. 6.
My favorite way to evaluate quarterbacks is the same it’s always been: wins and losses.
In Tagovailoa’s case, the Dolphins win when he plays and lose when he doesn’t. They’re 5-0 in the games in which he’s played in both halves, and 0-3 in the others, when he was injured.
I like when people who played the game at the highest level agree with me. Former NFL linebacker Emmanuel Acho is now an analyst for FS1.
“Tua Tagovailoa is better than (Chargers quarterback) Justin Herbert,” Acho said Friday, before Tagovailoa led Miami to a 31-27 win at Detroit. “Simple. Tua has 17 wins and nine losses in his career. Justin Herbert has 19 wins and 20 losses — he’s a losing quarterback.”
Then, this week:
“This is what I mean by quarterback beauty pageant: Yeah, Justin Herbert will win off measurables, but keep in mind that Herbert would crush Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in all those measurables. What makes a great quarterback to me isn’t measurables. Yeah, beauty pageant, Justin Herbert will win all day, every day,” Acho said.
As for Mariota, the Falcons were supposed to be horrible this year. But with him as the new starting quarterback, Atlanta is 4-4 — and alone in first place in the NFC South after a 37-34 overtime win over Carolina on Sunday, which happened to be his 29th birthday.
The Panthers gave Mariota a present, failing to capitalize on the interception he threw in overtime. And, then, whatever his passer rating is didn’t matter, as Mariota’s 30-yard run set up the Falcons’ winning field goal.