Before sunup Monday the Honolulu Fish Auction — “the only fish auction between Tokyo and Maine” — was doing business as usual: A dozen men in coats and rubber boots stepped along rows of tuna on ice, lifting fillets and prodding flesh to the tune of the masked auctioneer muttering the price per pound.

Four boats had unloaded some 71,000 pounds of fish earlier in the morning. One ahi already received high marks, earning it $12.50 per pound—not cheap for the 97-pounder.

“It’s a little early,” Michael Goto, the auction manager, said. But as the new year closes in, so too would both buyer and supplier, he said.

Tuna fishermen often time their return to Oahu for the end of the year so they can supply New Year’s Day festivities with traditional sashimi. But that brings its own uncertainty.

“It’s all a gamble,” Goto said. “They don’t know what the price is going to be when they get back.”

Specifics aside, Goto was pretty certain that as the last days of 2022 dwindled, the number of buyers coming to bid would double, and the price of ahi would only rise in time for New Year’s Day.

Later Monday morning at Tamashiro Market — “home of the finest seafoods” — prices were high but not at their full potential.

A pound of premium grade ahi: $25.95. Premium No. 1 toro (bluefin): $39.95. And $15 for a half-pound of ahi poke.

The much-embattled Maine lobster was running at $24.95 per pound. (In November, Whole Foods announced it would halt its purchases of lobster from Maine after environmental groups raised concerns that equipment used to catch the crustaceans could harm endangered whales.)

At Tamashiro’s counter, Mililani resident Janet Clanton, 57, opted for three pounds of the less pricey stuff for a grand total of $32 because “only a few of us this year,” she said.

Clanton herself doesn’t enjoy raw fish, so she planned to make “stuffed” ahi, inserting a layer of mayo, dusting it with panko and then baking it.

She was happy to get a better deal for her New Year’s Day meal by coming sooner.

“I used to come a day or two before, and prices were crazy,” Clanton said. “I have learned my lesson.”

Jeff DeGuzman traveled from Ewa for a pound of premium ahi — but only for a typical meal early in the week.

He plans to return to Tamashiro’s before New Year’s Eve.

“My wife, she’s from Pittsburgh,” DeGuzman said. “She has blond hair, blue eyes, and she knows the difference between fish now. When she first came to Oahu, she went through culture shock and she couldn’t stand it. Now she’s, like, part-seal.”

“They get picky when they been here awhile,” said Guy Tamashiro, who runs the market. He was standing nearby in a blue polo tucked into jeans, which were tucked into knee-high rubber boots.

“My wife is from Tennessee,” Tamashiro said. “Blond with green eyes!”

Tamashiro has noticed the ahi haul has been good in recent weeks, but there’s been a difference in the catch.

“Some of the fishermen are saying that the fish in the north are not biting. So a lot of them changed and went to the south,” he said. “So when they go to the south, they don’t have as many fatty fish. The water’s warmer.”

Just how many ahi will hit Honolulu in time for New Year’s Day remains uncertain.

“The number of boats that are expected in this week, not as many as it normally has for this time of year,” Tamashiro said. “Normally they really target Christmas, especially New Year’s, because they make good money. We’re at the mercy of the supply.”

In the store, only a handful of customers ordered fish. Tamashiro expected he would see lines running the length of the store as the week draws to a close.

“We’re not gonna buy a whole bunch right now,” he said.