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Oahu’s population dipped below 1 million in 2022 after a net loss of nearly 21,000 residents from April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2022, as Hawaii saw its population drop 1% to 1.44 million, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates released Thursday.
The population decline coincides with the worst months of the COVID-19 pandemic, when Hawaii experienced some of the nation’s highest unemployment as the state’s tourism-dependent economy crashed and many residents moved away for jobs and cheaper living on the mainland.
In fact, during the period covered in the newly released Vintage 2022 population estimates, Oahu experienced a net domestic migration loss of 31,682 residents who relocated to other states versus those who moved to the island. That figure was somewhat offset by a net gain of 5,617 in international migration to Oahu and by “natural change” — births exceeding deaths — of 5,473.
All told, Oahu lost an estimated 20,868 residents, a population decline of 2.1% from April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2022, according to the Census Bureau estimates. (Estimates for total net loss factor in a “residual” figure that cannot be attributed to a specific demographic component.)
The latest estimates place the island’s population at 995,638, down from 1,016,506 on April 1, 2020, when it first tipped the million mark.
The Census Bureau estimates the statewide population at 1,440,196 as of July 1, a decline of 1.0%, or 15,077 fewer residents.
The economic implications of a declining population include a shrinking labor pool and reduced household consumption and spending, hampering economic growth, according to Chief State Economist Eugene Tian, who heads the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism’s Research and Economic Analysis Division.
“We already have a labor shortage, and it will be more difficult for businesses to find the workers they want,” he said.
A net estimate of 29,684 residents left Hawaii for the mainland during the 27-month period covered in the latest data, while international migration showed a net gain of 7,953 residents statewide, and natural growth a net gain of 6,842.
The decline in Hawaii’s population that started in 2020 reversed at least a decade of growth. Data from the most recent decennial censuses shows average annual population growth of 0.68% from 2010 to 2020, Tian said. During that period the number of residents statewide increased to nearly 1.46 million from roughly 1.36 million.
Since then, however, the population has dropped to a little more than 1.44 million residents, for average annual growth of minus 0.37% from July 1, 2020, to July 1, 2022, he said.
Although it’s long been known that many residents have fled the islands in recent years due to the high cost of living, now worsened by inflation, Tian said he was surprised by the magnitude of domestic outmigration to the mainland reflected in the latest Census Bureau estimates. He attributed the exodus to the state’s relatively slow recovery from the pandemic and a strong job market on the mainland.
“The rest of the U.S. fully recovered in 2021, and Hawaii is still recovering until now, and we won’t fully recover until 2025,” he said.
The state’s gross domestic product is only 95% of what it was in 2019, Tian said, with tourism GDP at only 83% of its pre-pandemic figure.
“We are flat for this year and next year,” he said of any expected improvement in the economy.
On the neighbor islands, Hawaii County saw the largest-percentage population growth among the state’s counties at 2.8%, which translates to a net gain of 5,684 residents over the 27-month period.
Maui County, meanwhile, had a net loss of 411 residents, a 0.2% drop in population, and Kauai County a net gain of 516, or 0.7% growth.
Tian found Maui County’s population loss surprising, saying it was likely due to higher costs for housing, goods and services than on the other neighbor islands.
“Outmigrations were surprisingly high statewide. We expected that people moving out was happening in Honolulu, but now the numbers show Maui had 500 residents moving out,” he said.
Hawaii County was second behind Oahu in terms of total population, with 206,315 residents as of July 1, followed by Maui County at 164,351 and Kauai at 73,810, according to census estimates.
Hawaii’s smallest county, Kalawao County, which encompasses Kalaupapa peninsula on Molokai, saw its census grow to 82 from 80.
All counties showed net gains in natural growth, with Oahu leading with 5,473 more births than deaths. Kauai’s natural growth was estimated at 387, Maui County’s at 838 and Hawaii County’s at 142.
Oahu’s net migration loss of 26,065 — domestic and foreign combined — was followed by Maui County with a loss of 1,306 residents. Net migration gains were seen on Hawaii island, 5,525, and on Kauai, 115.
Despite the net gains, Tian also found notable the ongoing decline in natural growth as the state’s population ages and more residents decide to have fewer or no children.
According to state Department of Health records, the number of births in Hawaii has steadily declined from 18,972 in 2012 to 14,052 in the 2022 calendar year. At the same time, the number of deaths rose to 12,969 from 10,317.
Tian predicted that in the next 10 years, the number of deaths in Hawaii will exceed births. If trends continue, he doesn’t foresee Hawaii returning to upward of the 1% population growth recorded in the early part of the past decade.
“Population growth will be flat; it will be difficult to get to even 0.5%,” he said. “The recovery will be slow, and the high cost of living is making a lot of people move out.”
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