Hawaii and the Central Pacific region may experience an above-normal number of hurricanes this season, which officially begins Thursday, with four to seven tropical cyclones as compared to four or five in a “normal” season, according to data-crunching by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

This part of the Pacific is expected to be subject to El Nino conditions, with weaker tradewinds and warmer ocean surface temperatures that could draw a cyclone toward Hawaii. And really, it “only takes one” to wreak havoc — so have an emergency plan and disaster supply kit ready to go, with two-plus weeks’ worth of food, water, medicine and essentials.