Prices consumers paid for gasoline, food and other items were just 3% higher overall in June than a year earlier, according to federal data. That somewhat good news has sparked a stock market rally and a bit more confidence that the U.S. will sidestep a recession.

Year-over-year inflation was 4% in May, as compared to more than 9% last summer. And June’s 3% rate was lower than economists predicted, showing better-than-expected progress in throttling business price hikes and quelling consumer expectations that costs will keep rising.

The Federal Reserve is still expected to raise interest rates once more at its next meeting, but if inflation continues to wane, hikes could go on ice.