As someone who grew up watching University of Hawaii sports and graduated from UHM, all this college conference realignment is setting off an alarm in the back of my head — the Western Athletic Conference breakup of 1998 has saddled me with abandonment issues that I can’t shake.
This isn’t paranoia — six of the eight schools that left to start play as the Mountain West Conference the following year are still in the MWC, and with the league dropping its divisions last season, it no longer needs an even number of teams.
What happens with the control of the Pac-12 is a wild card of sorts. Though the Mountain West Board of Directors issued a statement about a month ago to “reaffirm (their) collective commitment to the Conference and its future,” if Oregon State and Washington State gain the power to add whatever schools they see fit and choose to take their pick from the Mountain West, the Pac-12 brand might be tough to resist.
With the worst-case scenario in mind — OSU and WSU taking nearly every team in the MWC and leaving Hawaii behind — I’ve started thinking about what life would be like for Hawaii as a football independent. I’ve always been dubious at the suggestion, but maybe I’ve been too “quick to dismiss,” as George Costanza once accused Jerry Seinfeld of being.
So I decided to take a closer look at how realistic it would be for new UH athletic director Craig Angelos to cobble together a schedule by examining the slates of all FBS teams this season, looking for their bye weeks (since a trip to Hawaii would allow a school to add a game without giving up one) and nonconference games that Hawaii could’ve been scheduled for had this all been done years in advance as it usually is (especially road nonconference games, to gauge when a team might be willing to travel). I set some criteria to aim for doing this hypothetical schedule:
>> The goal is 13 games. With Week Zero available to Hawaii, there are 14 (or even 15?) weekends available.
>> The ideal would be seven home games, but six or even five might be more realistic given the stadium situation, which UH has made the best of despite foot-dragging by the state but is still an issue.
>> No more than two “body bag” games — travel and the size of the opponents can take a physical toll.
>> But also … no more than one game against an FCS opponent. For the few games the Rainbow Warriors will play, the fans still deserve a good product, and fans will not show up for just any opponent.
>> No grudges against the Mountain West/Pac-12 teams that abandoned Hawaii in this hypothetical. Opponents will be too tough to come by to rule out 13 programs within easy flying distance of the islands.
With those rules in mind, let’s take it week by week:
>> OK, not quite week by week because even with no conference to lean on for scheduling, Week Zero (at Vanderbilt), Week 1 (vs. Stanford), Week 2 (vs. Albany) and Week 3 (at Oregon) should stick with no problem, so let’s jump ahead to …
>> Week 4: UH has a home game against New Mexico State scheduled for Sept. 30, but the Aggies also have a bye the following week, so maybe NMSU could have been scheduled for Week 5 (maybe even on a Friday to get them back home for their Week 6 conference game earlier?) and Hawaii could piggyback another road game on that one at Oregon in Week 3. There are many teams not yet in conference play, and since Hawaii will already be on the mainland, going a little farther is not such a burden, opening up many attractive options. If the game is played early enough on Saturday, the players could even be back in their own beds that night.
Some interesting prospective opponents beyond those currently in the MWC are Nebraska, Missouri, UTEP and TCU. El Paso is an interesting option among those Power 5 schools because it’s the most winnable and also the shortest flight home (assuming a charter), even if it isn’t a huge payday. There will be a chance for one of those later.
>> Week 5: As mentioned above, the New Mexico State game would move to this week.
>> Week 6: Among the appealing teams on bye this week are Brigham Young, Air Force and UNLV. BYU is a throwback rival that Hawaii rarely plays anymore, and UNLV has become a new rival of sorts, matched perhaps only by Fresno State. But I’ve long been a believer that UH should bring in one of the service academies almost every year, given the military’s presence in the islands and their members’ passion, so the Falcons are the pick this year.
>> Weeks 7/8: Scheduling gets tricky in October because so many Group of 5 teams play midweek games, so why not Hawaii? After playing Air Force on Oct. 7, UH could take the next two weekends off but bring in an independent such as UMass or UConn on the Tuesday or Wednesday between them (Oct. 17 or 18). Having a week and a half off before and after would make the travel more tenable for those teams, and some sports network (or streamer, such as Amazon Prime?) would love to snap up some live content.
>> Week 9: Boston College and Pitt are among the Power Five teams playing nonconference games this week, so maybe UH could travel. But the best option might be getting San Diego State to come out here during its bye week, even if Hawaii might have to chip in a little more for travel costs than it does as part of its MWC deal.
>> Week 10: Jacksonville State is scheduled to play its fellow Gamecocks at South Carolina on this week, but if UH had been looking ahead as an independent, a trip to Hawaii might have been an option for the Gamecocks from Florida given that they have a bye the following week. Payday games also might have been available at schools such as Tennessee and North Carolina. The options aren’t plentiful at this time of year, but it will be easier to schedule once Hawaii is scheduling years in advance.
>> Week 11: There aren’t many options this week, so it seems like a good week for Hawaii to take a bye, and why Hawaii has the opportunity to take a bye after the two half byes earlier will be revealed in a few paragraphs.
>> Week 12: Coming off a bye might be the best time for UH to look at a longer trip to face a marquee opponent that might make it worth the program’s while (financially) to travel. This week before Thanksgiving annually has a few Power Five teams taking on programs of less renown at home to warm up for a rivalry game, so Hawaii could fit that. Among the schools doing that this season are Florida State, Auburn and LSU.
>> Week 13: Going with another road two-fer, staying away for Thanksgiving could be a bonding experience for the team, and one of the abovementioned independent teams could be an option. There are also a few other schools with byes. But the most intriguing choice to me is Army, which currently has three weeks off leading up to its biggest game of the year — the Army-Navy game, which ends each regular season.
>> Week 14: This is typically conference championship weekend, with games on Friday and Saturday, so even teams who are perennial cellar-dwellers keep it clear entering the season. Tough to schedule a game for Week 14 … unless UH waits until during the season to do so. Back in 2012, Hawaii and Temple were in serious talks to schedule just such a game, so it can be done. Temple was willing and would not have demanded expenses or an appearance fee, as reported by the Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s Stephen Tsai when those talks broke down less than four weeks before the game would have taken place.
UH’s acting athletic director at the time, Rockne Freitas, said the numbers didn’t add up. But that was because UH didn’t want to charge season-ticket holders for a game added in season. But if Hawaii knows going into the season that it will have a game on this weekend, just not the opponent? Then it could work.
My can-do nature says this is very much possible. And putting in play a 15th weekend allows Hawaii a second bye during the season, which could be important with some of the traveling it will have to do to make independent status work.
So there you have it: a 13-game schedule across 15 weeks with 6-7 home games. The home slate includes Stanford, Albany, New Mexico State, Air Force, UMass or UConn, possibly San Diego State and a team to be determined in season. Hawaii would have to pay some travel expenses, but it already pays those to at least to four MWC opponents each year, and some of those road games would come with travel subsidies.
The best-case scenario is Hawaii stays with the Mountain West or even jumps into a new Pac-10/12/14, but this exercise has made me feel a bit better about the Rainbow Warriors’ ability to survive a worst-case scenario.