Occupancy in West Maui timeshares should reach 80% to 90% by Thanksgiving — similar to the industry’s strong recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic all but brought Hawaii’s tourism economy to a halt, officials say.

By comparison, West Maui hotel occupancy has been forecast to reach only 60% to 75%, or less, by Thanksgiving, said Lisa Paulson, executive director of the Maui Lodging &Hotel Association.

The different expectations reflect the different occupants: Both timeshares and hotels house federal relief workers, evacuees and a much smaller percentage of tourists. But timeshares expect to see a quick return of older, retired timeshare owners and members, and international travelers with families.

“They come from all walks of life: from different countries, retirees,” Paulson said.

Unlike the hotel industry, she said, timeshares are “a different animal. Even during COVID — and right after — they shot up to 90%.”

Maui timeshares typically run around 90% throughout the year, even during the slow “shoulder season” for tourists ahead of the holidays, said Jason Gamel, president and CEO of the American Resort Development Association, the trade association that represents the timeshare industry.

“Historically, they run in October, generally speaking, upper 90% — October 2023’s not going to be 90%,” Gamel said.

After the Aug. 8 wildfires, however, timeshare occupancy plummeted to 20% to 40% but began slowly rebounding after Gov. Josh Green and Maui Mayor Richard Bissen invited tourists to return Oct. 8 — marking two months after the fires.

Throughout the timeshare industry, resorts “run very high occupancy,” Gamel said. “And that’s traditional.”

For the Valley Isle, he said, “it’s Maui’s high worldwide demand.”

In the aftermath of the fires, Gamel said, Maui’s timeshare industry worked with members so they were not penalized for having to cancel reservations or cut their visits short.

Even during the shoulder season, timeshare occupancy remains high for a variety of reasons, he said, including the ability of international visitors to bring their children who may be on different school calendars, and retirees who may be able to stay for a month or longer. And with softer demand, timeshare members are likely to find more opportunities to book reservations.

There are 29 timeshare resorts on Maui, most of them in Kaanapali and to the north, Gamel said.

On Maui the industry’s 2,500 to 3,000 workers began gearing up for the Oct. 8 reopening of West Maui to tourism, Gamel said. Now, he said, “owners are starting to come back.”

The Maui Lodging &Hotel Association continues to work with the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism to find more comfortable units for long-term housing for evacuees currently staying in hotels, officials say.

But, because of their nature, most timeshares are unlikely to be available for leases of a year or more, Gamel said.

“It’s difficult to take them out of inventory for a year,” he said.