Tourism reopened to all of Maui Wednesday but the economic fallout from the Aug. 8 wildfires in Maui, the deadliest in modern U.S. history, is still unfolding and recovery is unlikely to come soon enough to stem all of the pain points.

Daniel Naho‘opi‘i, interim CEO of the Hawaii Tourism Authority, which asked Gov. Josh Green to declare a tourism emergency after the Maui wildfires dealt a crushing blow to Maui County’s tourism, said Thursday, “The emergency still exists and we are working through developing plans as well as we have already implemented certain marketing and community support actions.”

Naho‘opi‘i, who made his remarks during the state Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism’s webinar entitled “Pathways to Recovery: Tourism Updates,” was joined by DBEDT director James Kunane Tokioka and Shannon McKee, president of HTA contractor Access Cruise.

The trio named multiple areas of lingering concern for Maui’s tourism-dependent economy, which is now expected to take four years to recover to its pre-fire level. As the West Maui area affected by the fire accounts for 15% of state tourism, the downturn is negatively impacting statewide tourism results, too.

>> Airfare bookings to Maui through March are still much lower than they had been over historical 2022 and pre-pandemic 2019.

>> Maui hotel reservations went up a little in October based on housing-­displaced residents, relief workers and disaster-­related activity; however, reservations have since fallen into the negative against 2022 through at least September of next year. Hotel reservations across the entire state are following the same pattern.

>> Lahaina Harbor is closed indefinitely. Some cruise ships are visiting Port Kahului; however, it is sometimes unavailable due to other vessels, and some international ships are too large for the port. Ma‘alaea Harbor could be established as a new tender for international cruise vessels; however, the approvals process would be long and require a thorough evaluation of the port and weather conditions.

>> Over 7,000 residents on Maui have filed unemployment claims, some as a direct result of the wildfires, others from the subsequent tourism decline.

>> Those who have lost their household’s main income, primary earner’s paycheck or public assistance are vulnerable to losing their current housing in the next six months or less.

Naho‘opi‘i said HTA has been involved in the disaster response since Aug. 8, when it paused visitor marketing, and focused on visitor evacuations and supporting Maui and the state emergency operations centers. HTA resumed marketing on Aug. 21, and its board approved a near-term $2.6 million U.S. Marketing Maui Recovery Plan on Aug. 31, to be executed by the Hawaii Visitors and Convention Bureau, HTA’s contractor for its largest visitor source market.

HTA has convened a Disaster Response Permitted Interaction Group, and in Maui has participated in various community meetings as well as cultural and sensitivity trainings.

On Oct. 10, HTA awarded SMS Research & Marketing Services Inc. a $99,659.65 contract to execute planning services for a messaging strategy and tourism recovery plan. HTA said SMS is expected to provide services to support its Disaster Response Permitted Interaction Group and staff “in the development of a messaging strategy, a tourism recovery plan, and key learnings and recommendations for future planning.”

SMS, which is receiving less than half of what HTA paid the service provider for its annual conference, is expected to facilitate up to nine in-person meetings on Maui with an estimated 30 attendees each for data gathering and plan development, as well as a larger public community meeting with an estimated 200 attendees.They also will assist in publicizing and promoting HTA’s messaging strategy and campaign.

Keith Vieira, principal of KV & Associates, Hospitality Consulting, urges greater investment in the relaunch of Maui tourism.

He said the “malama messaging” about taking care of Hawaii and its people must be balanced by marketing that makes visitors feel welcome and showcases why they should visit.

“If you are putting messages about, ‘Come, but be thoughtful. Be careful,’ that’s not what people want to hear. Even though we do want them to be thoughtful and be aware of what employees have been through, that’s not the message that gets people to Hawaii,” Vieira said. “I would hope that they would look at a multimillion-dollar campaign.”

Vieira urges greater investment in tourism, which has lost support from the state Legislature over the past several years. He said about a dozen years ago, almost 100% of $100 million in transient accommodations taxes (TAT) went to tourism.

“Now we get nothing of $1 billion, although they are allocating some funds from other areas,” Vieira added.

“I’ve always felt that 3% to 5% of either the revenue or 10% to 15% of the transient accommodations taxes should be invested in marketing,” he said. “We aren’t keeping up with other destinations. Americans who are canceling Europe and the Middle East are booking the Caribbean. We need that business.”

Naho‘opi‘i said HTA and DBEDT are taking Maui’s tourism recovery seriously because revenues support the well-being of residents and shortfalls spillover to the rest of the state.

For instance, Naho‘opi‘i said a preliminary Hawai‘i Housing Study, which is part of the HTA’s Maui tourism recovery data, “shows that many who have lost their main income in the visitor industry, within six months or more, they most likely may not be able to maintain their current address. These are people who may be living outside the devastation area but still are not employed. Because of the work that they are doing in the visitor industry, they can’t continue to get a full income.”

Naho‘opi‘i said the study showed that of those without income, only about 22% would be able to live with another family or be able to find another place.

He said some “18% would rather move to the continent. That’s what we are trying to avoid, both for the fact that we want to ensure that our Maui residents continue to be working and continue to keep our families together. But also the fact as our visitor industry begins to repair itself, there will need to be a workforce available.”

Another key issue affecting Maui’s tourism recovery is that many West Maui hotel rooms are still being used to house displaced residents due to a lack of available mid- to long-term housing on Maui. The situation is untenable for displaced residents, especially those with families, who have been crammed into hotel rooms or are constantly on the move.

While West Maui hotel occupancy has been bolstered by displaced residents, relief workers and disaster activity, this kind of hotel use falls short over the long run, as it does not support jobs for as many workers or generate as much visitor spending. This is especially the case for small businesses, from shave ice stands to art galleries and activities and attractions. Sensitivities about sharing a hotel with sheltering residents also may deter some visitors from coming.

Tokioka said the shortage of available housing in West Maui as well as the cost of housing fire survivors in hotels is unique to Hawaii and has created an unsustainable situation.

“You are talking about hotel rates that are double or sometimes even triple the amount that they pay in Louisiana,” he said. “In Louisiana, you are talking about $100 something a night for a room. Here it was way more than that.”

For example, Tokioka estimated that the cost for just one hotel room per month in Maui at the FEMA rate is $10,600. He estimated that the cost is upwards of $26.5 million per month when cost per room is multiplied by 2,500, which is even less than the amount of rooms needed.

“That’s not a sustainable program that the state, FEMA or the Red Cross can pay for. So all of the different programs that the mayor is putting up, that the state is putting up — we are trying to get people out of hotels and into other types of accommodations as quickly as possible,” he said.

Lahaina Strong, a Maui advocacy group, has started a petition, at bit.ly/lahainastrong, urging Maui Mayor Richard Bissen to use emergency powers to convert short-term rentals into long-term rentals for a minimum of one year to house displaced Lahaina residents.

Tokioka said he and other officials are meeting with Maui vacation rental owners Friday with the aim of getting greater disaster housing participation. He said another goal is to determine a rate that is fair to vacation rental owners and FEMA, which is footing the bill and will have to justify Hawaii expenses to Congress.

“What’s taking so long as you can imagine, what happened in West Maui hasn’t happened anywhere else in this country. When you are looking at fires in Paradise or Katrina in Louisiana, those areas had more (housing units) available than we have here in Hawaii. In West Maui, it is very expensive,” he said.