The velocity of a roughly two-year slowdown for Oahu home sales eased in October, and the median price paid for single-family houses ticked up to break a 10-month string of year-over- year declines.

Sales data released Monday by the Honolulu Board of Realtors showed relatively small declines in purchases of previously owned single-family homes and condominiums last month.

There were 213 single-family homes sold in October, down 4.1% from 222 sales in the same month last year. That compared with declines during the first nine months of this year ranging from 16% to 54% from corresponding months last year.

In the condo market, the number of sales fell 8.3% to 399 in October from 435 a year earlier, and that followed drops between 17% and 50% each month this year through September compared with a year earlier.

Sale volume has been down since January 2022 for single-family homes, and since May 2022 for condos amid rising mortgage rates, bouts of high inflation and relatively low inventory.

In October, the median sale price for single-family homes ticked up 4.8% to $1,100,000 from $1,050,000 in the same month last year. It was the first increase since November 2022.

Condos sold for a median $515,000 last month, down 1% from $520,000 a year earlier. There had been three prior months this year — March, August and September — where there were year-over-year median price increases in the condo market.

The median price is a point at which half the sales were for more and half for less.

It’s hard to tell whether the two positive signs in Oahu’s housing market last month might be just a blip.

One local residential real estate brokerage firm leader anticipates that interest rates will settle in the coming months as the local housing market remains constrained with historically low inventory of homes for sale that keeps competition high among buyers.

“Although both homebuyer and seller activity have been dampened somewhat by higher mortgage rates and recent increases in home prices, Oahu is still a competitive market due to low housing supply and broad, high demand,” Chad Takesue, chief operating officer of Locations, said in a Friday report.

Takesue is optimistic that no more mortgage rate increases will happen through the end of the year, and that rates will land below 7% heading into 2024.

According to national mortgage buyer Freddie Mac, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has ranged from 6.09% to 7.79% over the past 52 weeks, and was 7.76% last week.

Higher interest rates reduce how much buyers can pay in most cases, and thus can put downward pressure on median sale prices. Takesue, however, noted in the Locations report that buyers are bidding up prices for single-family homes in more cases this year in contrast with a downward trend for bid-ups last year.

Based on the rate of sales last month, inventory would be depleted in 2.9 months for single-family homes and 3.3 months for condos if no more homes were listed for sale.

These are levels consistent with a “seller’s market” that keep upward pressure on prices, though high interest rates are a counteracting force.

For the first 10 months of this year, the median sale price for Oahu single- family homes is down 5.1% at $1,050,000 and the condo price is down 0.6% at $507,000.

The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization in September forecast that Oahu’s single-family home median sale price would slip this year 0.6% to $995,200 and then rise 4.1% to $1,035,600 in 2024 followed by a 5.9% rise to $1,097,100 in 2025.

UHERO expects condo median sale prices to slip 1.2% to $494,900 this year, and then rise 2.3% to $506,300 in 2024 followed by a 4.9% rise to $531,200 in 2025.

UHERO uses slightly different median price calculations than the Board of Realtors. Sales in the Board of Realtors report represent completed deals typically agreed to one to three months prior.

HOME SALES

The number of homes sold in October with the median price and percentage change from the same month last year:

HOMES

SALES MEDIAN PRICE

October 2023 213 $1,100,000

October 2022 222 $1,050,000

Change -4.1% 4.8%

CONDOS

SALES MEDIAN PRICE

October 2023 399 $515,000

October 2022 435 $520,000

Change -8.3% -1%

Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors