Should you live in Hawaii, or pack up and leave?

That’s a big question, and it is now under discussion by local economists who say it is about more than money.

Last year, the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) reported that the rest of the country looks good to folks living in Hawaii while the Islands, in comparison, appear less promising.

“Through good times and bad (including the Great Recession which began in 2007), more Hawaii residents moved to the Mainland since 2006 than mainlanders moved to Hawaii each year, except in 2010, ” said the report, “Aloha ‘Oe: Population Migration Between Hawaii and the U.S. Mainland,” written in 2020 by James Mak and Justin Tyndall.

In another UHERO report, economists put it as a simple switch in attitude.

“In the early 1970s, many in Hawaii were concerned that too many people were moving to Hawaii and reducing the quality of life in the islands. In recent years locals are leaving the islands in increasing numbers, citing the high cost of living in Hawaii — especially housing costs — and the lack of job opportunities suited to their skills and interests.”

According to news reports quoting the U.S. Census Bureau, “ … on average almost 20 people left the state (Hawaii) every day last year.”

A recent television news broadcast adds that the state’s chief economist says Hawaii’s population has decreased for the past seven years, with 15,000 people moving away in 2022.

State economist Eugene Tian said the reason some people move is because Hawaii’s economy is moving at a slower rate than the continent.

“Hawaii’s cost of living has been increasing, especially since we experienced an increase in housing prices in 2022,” said Tian.

In response to my query on Hawaii’s worry about the high cost of living here causing residents to leave, economist Paul Brewbaker, principal at TZ Economics, says much of it is directly about the high cost of housing.

“The housing problem is that there isn’t enough and they will never let you build it in Hawaii,” Brewbaker said in an interview with me last week.

While Brewbaker can use the charts and graphs favored by economists, he prefers to spell it out bluntly: “Oahu’s population has been declining for, what, seven straight years? Most people don’t even know it. Places that suck have decreasing populations. Places that rock have increasing populations.”

“Is this a big deal? Hell, yes,” said Brewbaker.

The response to what Brewbaker said is Hawaii’s failure to focus on building housing clearly is causing local residents to leave the state.

“Hawaii’s people have sent a signal loud and clear. Hawaii’s population was declining before the pandemic; why wouldn’t it continue declining afterward?” Brewbaker asked.

So far, Hawaii plans to improve housing opportunities or lower costs have not been realized. The houses have not been built — talked about or promised, yes, but nails pounded into new roofs, no.

That’s why people can’t live in Hawaii, so they leave. End of the Hawaii dream.

Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays. Reach him at 808onpolitics@gmail.com.