A daunting yet still-blurry picture of how much the state might have to pay for Maui wildfire recovery expenses in the near term emerged Tuesday at the state Legislature.

Part of the scenario is a $561 million “worst-case” expense in the current fiscal year ending June 30 far exceeding a budgeted $199 million, largely due to the Federal Emergency Management Agency not paying temporary hotel accommodations for 820 fire survivors deemed ineligible for federal assistance.

Another part is a Maui County request for the state to pay $402 million in what otherwise would be county recovery costs, including infrastructure repairs in Lahaina, over the next three years.

The nearly $1 billion potential expense was presented to the Senate Ways and Means Committee during a roughly five-hour briefing by state and Maui County administration leaders to help the panel shape the state budget a little over six months after the Aug. 8 disaster that destroyed most of Lahaina and killed at least 101 people.

It’s uncertain whether actual expenses will get as big as feared, because the state is challenging the vast majority of FEMA eligibility determinations. The state, county and FEMA also are working to produce 3,000 new temporary homes for fire survivors and alleviate hotel sheltering that costs $1,000 a day per household, including food and services.

“This situation has been extremely in flux from the beginning,” Luis Salaveria, director of the state Department of Budget and Finance, told the committee. “These numbers very well could change.”

A big reason for the jump far beyond a Budget and Finance estimate at the beginning of this year is due to the high number of households FEMA has deemed ineligible for federal shelter payment.

Salaveria said the state has a 10% cost share with FEMA for noncongregate shelter expenses of eligible survivors, but because of all the ineligible survivors, the state faces paying closer to 50%, which equates to around $250 million instead of $50 million on the maximum $500 million Red Cross contract through June.

At $1,000 day per household, 820 households are costing the state $820,000 a day, or $24.6 million a month.

Other wildfire recovery expenses for emergency response, housing and other things bring the state’s total anticipated obligations for the current fiscal year to $561 million out of an overall $2.1 billion largely being paid by the federal government, according to Salaveria.

State administrators have $199 million available for wildfire expenses this fiscal year, including $164 million that Gov. Josh Green redirected from past appropriations for other things, so the fund could be $362 million short.

What’s more is that Green’s administration figured state wildfire recovery expenses would total about $600 million over four years.

Senators are contemplating requests for state departments to cut spending by up to 15% as a way to help shore up finances.

The state has a roughly $1.5 billion rainy day fund, but there is reluctance to tap it because it helps secure a good credit rating that keeps down long-term financing costs for capital improvement projects.

Salaveria told the committee that a state wildfire recovery expense for next fiscal year has yet to be figured but that the state’s carryover budget balance could drop to around $100 million next fiscal year.

James Barros, administrator of the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency, said HI-EMA is contesting some FEMA decisions over shelter cost eligibility and not reimbursing the state for providing food to about 4,700 survivors still living in 15 Maui hotels.

Hotel guests are not being allowed to cook food, and in some cases they have no refrigerators. But FEMA is insisting that food is available from grocery stores and therefore provided meals shoudn’t be part of the federal expense, according to Barros.

Regarding the 820 survivors whom FEMA declared ineligible for its federal assistance, Barros said the state so far has agreed that only 29 are ineligible and continues to seek a reversal in FEMA’s decision for the others.

People not eligible for FEMA assistance include undocumented immigrants, migrants under the Compacts of Free Association and some condominium owners.

Donovan Dela Cruz, Ways and Means chair, is pressing for more temporary replacement housing to get established on Maui as soon as possible in order to reduce high hotel shelter contract costs for the state.

“We really got to figure out how to get the (cost) number down so that we can save the budget for both the county and the state,” he said during Tuesday’s briefing.

Dela Cruz (D, Mililani-­Wahiawa-Whitmore Village) and other lawmakers also are concerned that FEMA’s aid is set to end a year from now. It is possible that this period gets extended, but state lawmakers want to be prepared financially for the “cliff” when federal support ends.

There are goals to produce 3,000 new homes, including many by the end of 2025. These include about 500 units in the works at five projects by private developers, 550 units by Maui County, 1,000 units sought from FEMA and 500 modular units at The Villages of Lealii, a long-planned state project on undeveloped land in Lahaina.

FEMA, however, does not want to produce 1,000 homes, and so far has committed to develop only 213 modular homes in Kaanapali, according to Barros.

Homes produced by the state or county would help house survivors who are not eligible for FEMA assistance, which includes about 1,500 residential rental units on Maui being leased by FEMA for fire survivors.

Maui County projects that its costs for wildfire recovery will be about $600 million over the next three years, and on Monday informed Green’s administration that the county would like the state to cover $402 million of that total.

Of this $600 million, $338 million is to fix infrastructure needed for Lahaina property owners to rebuild. Another $161 million is for housing, and $102 million is for emergency response costs.

“Never before has Maui come to this body with a more urgent, critical and justified need,” Maui County Mayor Richard Bissen told the committee. “We must make our people whole again, and we cannot do it without the support of the state.”

Maui County Managing Director Josiah Nishita told the committee that part of the reason for the county’s request is that FEMA will reimburse the county for some costs but not until 2027, and that to cover the hoped-for county share of $198 million, the county is considering real property tax increases, borrowing and cutting programs and services.

The Ways and Means Committee has requested a follow-up presentation from Maui County and HI-EMA officials to understand more about the timing of housing efforts and other things.

After Tuesday’s hearing, House Speaker Scott Saiki (D, Ala Moana-Kakaako-­Downtown) said projected Maui fire recovery expenses for the state should get firmed up by April.

“We still don’t know what the extent of FEMA reimbursements will look like,” he said. “The state treasury is finite. We need to keep costs down to the extent that we can.”