Hawaii could be in for a milder-than-normal hurricane season this year thanks to favorable La Nina patterns and cooler waters, according to a forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. That translates to fewer than the four to five storms seen in a typical year.

Still, forecasts are best guesses — probability for this hurricane season is set at 50% below-average, 30% average and 20% above-average — and weather unpredictability due to climate change means preparations should be made. Officials are urging residents to update their emergency plans and maintain an emergency kit with disaster supplies, such as 14 days’ worth of water and non-perishable food, a flashlight, radio, batteries and other essentials.