The crystal ball finally worked properly a year ago.
Well, sort of. I predicted the University of Hawaii football team would win five games and lose eight, and that’s what the Warriors did.
This brag would be less humble if I hadn’t whiffed on one of the defeats (New Mexico) and one of the victories (Air Force). But they say a college football team will generally win one and lose one it shouldn’t each year, so I’ll chalk it up to that — especially since UH was favored against the Lobos and expected by everyone except the Warriors themselves to get bopped by the Falcons.
After the first two nonconference games, this year’s results are harder to predict. There’s no Air Force game, but perennial conference kingpin Boise State returns to the schedule.
The Mountain West has a slew of new head coaches, making Hawaii’s Timmy Chang one of the conference’s longest tenured in just his third year. But the real veterans are new assistant coaches Dennis Thurman (defensive coordinator), Jeff Reinebold (defensive line) and Dan Morrison (quarterbacks/co-offensive coordinator). Those three have more than 100 years of combined coaching experience, with much of Reinebold’s and Morrison’s at UH. Derek Faavi (offensive line) and Anthony Arceneaux (running backs) are younger staff additions with plenty of local name recognition and recruiting contacts.
The player roster is experienced, too. But that could be good or bad, since UH went 8-18 in Chang’s first two seasons and is five years removed from its last winning season.
These two things are certain: As long he gets adequate protection, senior quarterback Brayden Schager will throw for plenty of yards and touchdowns. And, the Warriors will be undefeated and in contention for the Group of Five’s first chance at a College Football Playoff berth — until they fall to 1-1 a week from Saturday against UCLA.
Game 1
Delaware State
Saturday
The Warriors haven’t won their season opener since 2020 but are favored to take down the FCS Hornets by 38 1/2 points.
Delaware State is celebrating the 100th anniversary of its football program after winning just one game last year, and things haven’t started well with a missed flight to Hawaii.
Speaking of century marks, Portland State beat DSU 105-0 in 1980, with Neil Lomax quarterbacking the run-and-shoot as coached by Mouse Davis. This is not UH football’s calabash grandfather’s four-wide offense, but Chang’s version is close enough for Hawaii to name its score.
Delaware State was versatile in its only 2023 win, scoring by run, pass, field goal and kickoff, punt and interception returns in a 48-10 victory over Virginia Lynchburg.
>> Win 1-0
Game 2
UCLA
Aug. 31
It’s too bad for the Warriors that they don’t host the Bruins later in the season when the new Big Ten members will be more road-weary.
If Lincoln’s clocks were set like those in other parts of Nebraska, UCLA would have at least one game this year in every U.S. time zone where college football is played. This trip to the islands isn’t even the Bruins’ farthest from Pasadena; that will be the voyage to New Jersey in October to play Rutgers, by about 300 miles.
Redshirt senior quarterback Ethan Garbers impressed first-year head coach DeShaun Foster early in fall camp. Foster, the former Bruins All-American, was elevated from running backs coach, and also saw Garbers come off the bench to lead last season’s comeback win over Boise State in the LA Bowl.
Safety Bryan Addison — son of the former UH star who died in 2020 — played against the Warriors for Oregon last year. He has since transferred to UCLA, which was his original commitment from high school, and depth charts indicate he will start.
>> Loss 1-1
Game 3
at Sam Houston State
Sept. 14
The longtime NAIA and FCS Bearkats (with a national championship in each) are now in Conference USA and host the Warriors in Huntsville, Texas, with a visit to the Ching Complex set for 2025.
Sam Houston was just 3-9 last year, with all three wins coming in its last four games — all against teams with losing records.
Still, those were confidence builders, and no road game is easy for Hawaii. This could go either way, but give it to the Warriors since the Bearkats will still be figuring out this FBS thing.
>> Win 2-1
Game 4
Northern Iowa
Sept. 21
UH finishes its not-so-grueling nonconference slate with a lopsided home win over the Panthers, who are picked to finish eighth in the Missouri Valley Conference.
In 2014, UH won 27-24 in the schools’ only previous meeting, which could be called the Stan Sheriff Bowl. The late Hawaii athletic director was Northern Iowa’s coach for 23 years, and is known for the building of athletic facilities at both schools that are still in use; the Panthers’ football home is the multi-purpose UNI-Dome, which opened in 1976 under Sheriff’s watch.
The Warriors win their second game of the season against an FCS foe, but it won’t count toward bowl eligibility.
>> Win 3-1
Game 5
at San Diego State
Oct. 5
The Warriors let very winnable games slip away against the Aztecs the past two years.
That’s less likely to happen in the Mountain West opener. San Diego State is adjusting to a new head coach, Sean Lewis, who was Deion Sanders’ offensive coordinator at Colorado last year.
Lewis likes to sling it around, but UH’s players have more experience with a wide-open style, and will prevail in an old-fashioned WAC-style shootout by making fewer mistakes.
>> Win 4-1
Game 6
Boise State
Oct. 12
As usual, the Broncos are a load, and the Warriors haven’t played the kings of the Mountain since 2020.
UH hasn’t beaten Boise State since 2007 — the year of the 12-0 regular season and Sugar Bowl appearance.
Running back Ashton Jeanty will show why he’s appearing on preseason first-team All-America lists. If Boise State makes a run at the Group of Five’s CFP spot, much of it will be his doing and Jeanty will be a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate.
>> Loss 4-2
Game 7
at Washington State
Oct. 19
As expected for a program in the Cougs’ left-behind status after 10 of the Pac-12 teams bolted for greener pastures, a lot of WSU’s players left, too.
But, the transfer portal works both ways, and enough Group of Five talent remains in Pullman to get the job done at home.
Coach Jake Dickert named John Mateer to start at quarterback, and he will operate behind a line with five players who have starting experience.
>> Loss 4-3
Game 8
Nevada
Oct. 26
There’s no doubt that Chang’s tenure at Reno helped the Warriors game-plan victories over the Pack the past two years. Of course that advantage fades quicker in the transfer portal era.
But Arceneaux was on Nevada’s staff in 2022 and ’23, so that will help some, even though Nevada has a new head coach in Jeff Choate and plenty of new players. One of them is starting quarterback Brendon Lewis, a Colorado transfer.
Longtime Hawaii fans know first-hand that one-season turnarounds are possible. That’s especially true now, but still unlikely and UH should have no problem winning its homecoming game against a program with back-to-back 2-10 seasons.
>>Win 5-3
Game 9
at Fresno State
Nov. 2
Head coach Jeff Tedford stepped down for health reasons, but the Bulldogs are still loaded after going 9-4 in 2023.
Quarterback Mikey Keene and running back Malik Sherrod work behind a veteran offensive line, and the defense has been augmented through the portal.
Fresno State’s toughest challenge under new head coach Tim Skipper is its season opener at Michigan. That is somewhat offset by a regular-season schedule that does not include Boise State.
>> Loss 5-4
Game 10
UNLV
Nov. 9
The Rebels officially turned the corner in Barry Odom’s first year, with a 9-3 regular season in 2023. UNLV lost to Boise State in the Mountain West championship game and also lost its bowl game, but still received first-place votes in the 2024 preseason media poll.
Ricky White is the most prolific returning receiver in college football, tying and breaking school records with 88 receptions and 1,483 yards in 2023.
Linebacker Jackson Woodard, return specialist Jacob De Jesus and offensive lineman Tiger Shanks join White as ’23 Mountain West first-team honorees.
It’s still unclear who will throw the passes to White this season. Senior Cameron Friel, a Kailua High product, is in a battle with FCS transfers Matthew Sluka (Holy Cross) and Hajj-Malik Williams (Campbell).
Friel hasn’t played much since he was the Mountain West Freshman of the Year in 2021, when he led the Rebels to a 27-13 victory against UH.
>> Loss 5-5
Game 11
at Utah State
Nov. 16
The guys on this team from Las Cruces are still Aggies, and they’ve played the Warriors three times in the past two seasons, winning once.
Many of coach Nate Dreiling’s New Mexico State players followed him to Logan, where he is now interim head coach.
This can be a tough place to play at late in the season, and it hasn’t mattered home or away since 2011 for UH, with seven straight losses.
>> Loss 5-6
Game 12
New Mexico
Nov. 30
This game is one of the few kindnesses the conference schedule gives UH.
Unlike last year, the Warriors won’t need to scramble to make a walk-off field goal to win on senior night for the seventh time in a row.
Their record will be just one win better than 2023. But the improvement will be noticeable and enough for Chang to keep his job, especially considering what he started with in 2022 and that he still lacks a full-size stadium.
>> Win 6-6
