Just about half of all seats in Hawaii’s Legislature are being contested by at least two candidates in the Nov. 3 general election, which features two special races and could produce a historic third-party victory.
Thirty-seven of the 76 legislative seats will be on the ballot, with more choices for voters picking between candidates in the House, where 31 of 51 seats are contested. In the 25-member Senate, occupants for six seats are being decided.
As always, incumbents typically have an advantage at winning and retaining their positions. But some close races are expected, and could result in upsets that put new lawmakers into the Legislature where Democrats dominate.
University of Hawaii political scientist Colin Moore expects that the number of Republicans represented in next year’s Legislature could decline a bit and reverse gains achieved in recent years because this year isn’t a presidential election year that helps drive higher GOP voter turnout.
“I don’t predict it’s going to be a good year for the Republicans just because of these background conditions of President Trump’s unpopularity and the fact that he’s not on the ballot, which usually lowers Republican turnout,” Moore said. “And they have to defend so many seats where they’re going to be close. If they keep what they have, I think that would be a pretty fantastic result for them.”
House matchups
In the House, where eight of the 10 Republicans are on the ballot, Moore sees at least four as vulnerable to losing.
Most at risk, in Moore’s view, is Rep. Elle Cochran (R, Waihee-Lahaina-Lahainaluna) in large part because the West Maui district isn’t one where most voters favor Republicans.
Cochran, a former Maui County Council member, was first elected to the House in 2022 as a Democrat. She switched parties in the middle of this year’s legislative session in March, and now faces two challengers in the general
election.
One of those challengers is Pa‘ele Kiakona, a high-profile advocate for survivors of the Aug. 8, 2023, Maui wildfires representing the organization Lahaina Strong. Kiakona is a Green Party candidate, and has received endorsements from the state’s three biggest public worker unions as well as from a few private labor unions.
Sne Patel, a Democrat and president of the LahainaTown Action Committee, is the other contender.
Moore said Kiakona has the edge despite not being a major party candidate. If Kiakona wins, he would make history as the first third-party candidate elected to Hawaii’s Legislature.
“Normally, a third-party candidate wouldn’t stand much of a chance,” Moore said, “But I think that he could very well be the favorite because he has those institutional endorsements and is so well known.”
However, there’s also a risk that the three-way race is captured by Cochran if Patel and Kiakona split too many votes from independents and Democrats.
Another race with a Republican incumbent who Moore said could lose is between Rep. Joe Gedeon (R, Hawaii Kai-Kalama Valley) and Democratic challenger Jamie Wataru, a state-employed journeyman plumber and former Hawaii president of the United Public Workers union.
Gedeon was appointed to the House District 18 seat in May 2025 to succeed Gene Ward, a Republican who resigned due to health issues in March 2025 and died about a month later after serving 27 years in office.
Moore said the district once leaned Republican but hasn’t for about a decade. “It’s a bright blue district now,” he said.
The shift, according to Moore, didn’t affect Ward because of his deep service to the community but could affect the current race.
“Gene Ward was just a legend out there, but (Gedeon) doesn’t benefit from that,” Moore said.
In Leeward Oahu, Rep. Elijah Pierick (R, Royal Kunia-Waipahu-Honouliuli) is vacating his House seat to run for the Senate, and Moore anticipates a tight race to succeed Pierick.
This matchup in House District 39 features Democrat Corey Rosenlee, a public school teacher and former Hawaii State Teachers Association leader who lost to Pierick in each of the prior two elections, and Republican Danny Degracia, an ordained minister and unionized state Department of Health program specialist.
The general election also features two House rematches from past elections where Moore expects Republican incumbents to prevail. One involves Rep. Garner Shimizu (R, Moanalua-Aliamanu-Foster Village) defending his seat against Democrat Micah Aiu. In 2022, Aiu beat Shimizu. Then Shimizu beat Aiu in 2024.
In the other rematch, Rep. Julie Reyes Oda (R, Ewa Beach-Iroquois Point) faces Democrat Rose Martinez, who served one term before losing to Reyes Oda in 2024.
One last House race where Moore expects a potentially close finish is between incumbent Rep. Chris Muraoka (R, Waianae-Makaha) and Democrat Kalehua Kaopua, a mother of four. Muraoka defeated another Democrat in 2024 to fill the seat previously held by a Democrat. “It’s one of those closely divided districts that’ll probably be competitive,” Moore said.
Senate races
In the Senate, where Republicans hold three of 25 seats, Moore sees potential for Republicans to pickup one or even two additional seats and possibly lose another.
The Senate seat at risk of being lost by Republicans in Moore’s view is to be vacated by Sen. Kurt Fevella (R, Ewa Beach-Ocean Pointe- Iroquois Point), who tied primary election challenger Bob McDermott, a Republican who served 16 years in the state House from 1996 to 2002 and from 2012 to 2022.
McDermott won a tie-breaking random draw to move onto the general election where he faces first-time Democratic candidate Markus Owens, a former University of Hawai‘i baseball player and game broadcast commentator.
Moore said it probably would have been easier for Fevella, who doesn’t have an adversarial relationship with senators from the Democratic party, to prevail over Owens compared with McDermott, who has campaigned partly on national conservative issues including gender identity.
“That could be a tough one for them to defend,” Moore said of the Senate District 20 seat.
One potential pickup for Republicans in the Senate is the seat sought by Pierick, who is challenging incumbent Sen. Rachele Lamosao (D, Pearl City-Waipahu-West Loch).
Lamosao was first elected to the Legislature in 2022 when she became a member of the House. In December, Gov. Josh Green appointed her to fill the Senate District 19 seat vacated by then-Sen. Henry Aquino, who resigned to become a lobbyist.
“That’s a competitive race,” Moore said.
Special contests
Another possible Republican pickup could be the Senate District 18 seat where Sen. Michelle Kidani (D, Mililani Town-Waipio Gentry-Royal Kunia) resigned on June 30 for health reasons.
Because Kidani’s resignation took place too close to Hawaii’s Aug. 8 primary election, local political party officials were able to pick their District 18 candidates for the general election ballot.
Democratic Party of Hawai‘i officials selected Danielle Bass, who had been sustainability coordinator for the state Office of Planning and Sustainable Development since 2017, and was appointed by Green on Aug. 9 to fill the vacant seat until the general election.
Hawai‘i Republican Party officials selected local tourism industry administrator Kelly Kitashima. There is also a nonpartisan candidate, Max Hanna, who was picked by the state Office of Elections in a random draw.
Moore noted that Kitashima did fairly well in two prior elections — a 2020 contest where she lost a bid to fill a vacant Senate seat won by Bennette Misalucha, and a 2018 race for a Honolulu City Council seat won by Brandon Elefante.
“She’s a serious candidate,” Moore said of Kitashima.
The Senate District 18 race is one of two special contests on general election ballots. The other is a rerun of the primary election contest for House District 43 between incumbent Rep. Kanani Souza (R, Kapolei-Makakilo) and Republican challenger Sheila Medeiros.
Souza, first elected to a four-year term in 2022, tied Medeiros, a retired Army lieutenant colonel, in the primary. But the Hawaii Supreme Court, after a legal challenge filed by Souza, invalidated the results because of two ballots that county elections officials mistakenly issued for the wrong district that could have affected the outcome of the Souza-Medeiros race.
Wording on the general election ballot states that this race is “For Republican Party Voters Only,” though all registered voters for House District 43 are legally entitled to participate.
