With early returns of mail-in ballots from Oahu voters continuing to lag by about 20% compared to the same point in the last midterm general election in 2022, Honolulu elections officials are bracing for a last-minute surge in-person voting Tuesday, which could once again delay the release of election results statewide.
The County Elections Division last week warned voters in a text alert that, “Long lines and delays are expected on Election Day. Vote early to avoid the wait! If you haven’t returned your ballot, do so immediately or vote in person at a Voter Service Center today.”
By law, Hawaii voters must be allowed to vote — and even register to vote — on Election Day as long as they are in line by the 7 p.m. end of voting. A holdup at even one polling site anywhere in the state delays the release of all election results.
Just as in every midterm and presidential general election since Hawaii adopted mail-in voting in 2020, Rex Quidilla, administrator for the Honolulu Office of Elections, again expects election results to be late Tuesday night despite a relatively pedestrian election season with few exciting statewide races to inspire a large turnout of voters.
This year there are no major challengers running against Gov. Josh Green or U.S. Rep. Ed Case, and U.S. Rep. Jill Tokuda is facing a long-shot challenge from Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa (R, Kaneohe-Laie-Mokuleia).
Neither U.S. Sens. Brian Schatz nor Mazie Hirono are up for reelection.
Green is widely expected to win a second term Tuesday, joined by his new lieutenant governor running mate, outgoing Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami. They are being challenged by lesser-known Republican candidates Gary Cordery for governor and Daniel Anthony for lieutenant governor.
“The bulk of our votes come through the United States Postal Service,” Quidilla said. “But we’ve had a peak of activity on the last day of every general election that we’ve run under the vote-by-mail election model. Every last day of voting has seen a spike in participation.”
The Hawaii Republican Party continues to urge voters to vote in person on Election Day as President Donald Trump continues to question the security of America’s voting system, especially regarding mail-in ballots. Notably, Trump and first lady Melania Trump voted early and in person Oct. 24 in West Palm Beach, Fla.
In one of his latest efforts to sow distrust, Trump’s Justice Department last week continued preemptive attempts to disrupt voting in Alaska and California.
The Justice Department twice attempted to separate 20,000 mail-in ballots in California it alleges were cast by noncitizens. A federal judge ruled against the effort last week and a divided federal appeals court agreed Friday.
A day earlier, on Thursday, the New York Times cited unnamed sources who said the Justice Department had also issued federal grand jury subpoenas to at least two employees of the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder’s office as part of the administration’s efforts to portray elections in Democratic-leaning states as rigged against Republicans.
The low turnout so far in Hawaii runs contrary to reports from parts of the mainland that have seen a surge of early mail-in and in-person voting from tens of millions of voters concerned that Trump will take further steps to suppress turnout.
Trump and the head of the U.S. Postal Service earlier this year tried to ban the delivery of mail-in ballots in states such as Hawaii that did not turn over their voter roles to the federal government. The U.S. Constitution leaves responsibility for elections up to individual states, not the federal government.
The U.S. Supreme Court on Sept. 14 upheld a lower court ruling that prevented the threat of holding up mail-in ballots from going into effect, at least for this year’s elections.
Low turnout expected
Trump’s threats against states dominated by Democrats may be part of the reason Hawaii voters are not mailing in their ballots as usual, said Colin Moore, who teaches public policy at the University of Hawaii.
As of Friday, ballots arriving by mail — the overwhelming way that people on Oahu and across the state prefer to vote — were down 28% across Honolulu compared with the same point in 2022.
Voters dropping their ballots at remote drop boxes and voter service centers across Oahu were up 33.6%, but not enough to offset the decline in ballots arriving by mail, according to Quidilla.
Overall, the number of ballots arriving to Honolulu elections officials through drop boxes and by mail was down 21% Friday compared with the same point in 2022, he said.
Statewide, as of Friday, 210,309 people had voted, including 205,830 who voted by mail or through drop boxes.
It’s the first year that elections officials are tracking vote counts each day, so there is no comparable data to compare to previous election years.
When the 2022 midterm general election was finished, 419,363 people had voted, including 402,674 by mail, which added up to a turnout of 48.7% of all registered voters.
So Moore also expects to see voters lining up Tuesday to cast their ballots in person at Honolulu Hale or Kapolei Hale on Oahu and across the state for different political reasons.
“You’re seeing this happening on the left and the right this time,” Moore said. “For conservatives, they’ve always been suspicious of mail-in voting. But for Democrats, they’re concerned about some sort of meddling in the election or something happening with the Post Office. So it’s coming from both sides this time.”
Even if voters pack voter service centers across the state Tuesday, the overall turnout is expected to result in another year of low participation.
Voter turnout typically rises in presidential general elections, and 60.7% of all Hawaii registered voters — or 522,236 people — cast ballots in the 2024 general election race that saw Trump defeat Vice President Kamala Harris.
Charter amendments
Honolulu ballots this year include 20 proposed amendments to the city charter that could further extend the time that voters spend in the voting booth Tuesday, Quidilla noted.
“With 20 charter amendments and two constitutional amendments, you could help yourself as well as your fellow voters by doing your homework and being prepared to vote,” he said.
Since mail-in ballots must arrive at county elections centers by 7 p.m. Tuesday to be counted, it’s now too late to ensure mailed ballots will arrive in time. So Quidilla recommends voters study their ballots at home and place them in drop box locations or drop box sites at Kapolei Hale and Honolulu Hale by 7 p.m. Tuesday to ensure they will be counted — and to avoid standing in line to vote in person.
“So that’s easy and you can take as long as you want to consider each and every question,” he said.
Of Oahu’s 20 proposed charter amendments, one of the biggest election changes could happen if Honolulu voters approve an amendment calling for ranked-choice voting for the nonpartisan offices of mayor, City Council and prosecutor.
If supported by Oahu voters and ultimately approved by the Legislature, beginning in 2032, Honolulu voters would rank up to five candidates in the order they prefer. Primary election candidates who receive more than 50% of the first-choice votes would still win outright.
If no one receives more than 50%, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes would be eliminated and their votes would then be redistributed to their voters’ second-ranked preference — a process that would be repeated until one candidate receives a majority.
The change would likely require an extensive education campaign to get Oahu voters prepared.
Ranked choice voting is supported by Hawaii’s Democratic Party and opposed by the state’s Republican Party
Kauai, Maui races
Not to be overlooked, there are competitive high-profile races for Kauai and Maui County mayors.
On Kauai, Kawakami’s successor after two terms comes down to either former Mayor Bernard Carvalho Jr., who serves on the Kauai County Council, or Council Chair Mel Rapozo.
Carvalho served as mayor from 2008 to 2018 and has been on the Council since 2020. Rapozo’s separate terms on the Council spanned 2002-2008, 2010-2018 and since 2022
In Maui County, Mayor Richard Bissen faces a reelection challenge from Yuki Lei Sugimura, who has represented Upcountry Maui on the County Council since 2016.
She opposed Bissen’s controversial Bill 9 to require 6,208 vacation rentals in West and South Maui to convert to long-term housing for local residents following the Aug. 8, 2023, Maui wildfires that killed 102 people and destroyed an estimated 5,500 housing units, which helped drive up rental prices on the island.
Sugimura’s support includes endorsements from unions including the powerful Hawaii Carpenters Union. Its political action committee continues to run commercials supporting Sugimura, along with commercials backing the Green-Kawakami ticket.
Bissen retired as chief judge of Maui’s Circuit Court and, as mayor, steered the Valley Isle through America’s deadliest wildfire in over a century.
West Maui voters could make history in the race to represent the District 14 House seat that has incumbent Rep. Elle Cochran running as a Republican after she switched from the Democratic Party midway through the 2026 legislative session.
Cochran is being challenged by Democrat Sne Patel, president of the LahainaTown Action Committee, and Pa‘ele Kiakona, a high-profile member of the grassroots Lahaina Strong, who’s running as a Green Party candidate with the support of labor unions.
Kiakona was one of the Lahaina Strong leaders who sat down with Green and Bissen after the wildfires and help come up with the idea that became Bill 9 to address vacation rentals on the so-called Minatoya list that were zoned as condominium apartments and had no guarantee they could be used as vacation rentals.
No third-party candidate has ever been elected to the state Legislature, so a victory by Kiakona would be a first in Hawaii politics.
