Honolulu’s battle for rail is becoming the Afghanistan moment for local Democrats.

The once politically popular incursion into Afghanistan is now a questionable invasion. The decade-long American war is seen as a bad decision.

Since 2009, national polls have shown a majority of voters opposing the U.S. war in Afghanistan and call for us to leave immediately. There is a constant demand from Democrats in Congress to leave the country now.

Here in Honolulu, supporting the $5.3 billion heavy rail project has been an article of faith for most local Democrats.

It would relieve traffic congestion; it would spur growth; local people would get construction jobs; and it would add to Honolulu’s future, they said.

Today, those promised rails running from Kapolei to Ala Moana don’t shine as bright. Recent polls show that like our quagmire overseas, the majority of voters here disapprove of the rail project.

Benefitting from the new view is former Democratic Gov. Ben Cayetano, whose mayoral bid appears to be growing stronger as he solidifies his opposition to the project.

Cayetano is running for Honolulu mayor as an alternative to the two other candidates, incumbent Peter Carlisle and former acting Mayor Kirk Caldwell, who both support rail.

The Cayetano candidacy draws its support from two head-scratchingly different groups: Filipino-American voters and Republicans.

Filipinos, long called the "sleeping giant" in local politics, are waking up and are the new majority in Hawaii’s polyglot political world.

By almost any calculation, Filipino voters are reliable Democratic voters. The primarily blue-collar group is now the new, emerging middle-class voter in Hawaii, according to political analysts.

The Hawaii Poll, taken in February, showed that 62 percent of Filipino voters support Cayetano’s campaign and want to see him as mayor. It was the highest level of support from any ethnic group.

The other part of that equation is that 58 percent of Filipino voters oppose rail. Again, no other group has a higher level of opposition.

Those high levels of intense interest mean that Cayetano has captured the Filipino voters.

An anecdotal confirmation came from a well-known private labor leader, who asked for anonymity.

"There is a lot of concern because our members say they will vote for him.

"They say they voted for him in the past and they feel a deep allegiance to him.

"They say that, despite the union explaining that rail will provide both jobs and transportation," the labor leader said.

In contrast, a Filipino-American politician, who also asked for anonymity, said the issue would not be that clear cut.

He said that the stakes for rail are so high that Filipino groups are meeting now to come up with a position in favor of rail, even if it means opposing Cayetano.

"It will come to a head and there are going to be a lot of people voting ethnically, but I believe it comes down to economic benefits and mitigating traffic," he said. "They (Filipinos) are going to vote their pocketbook and for quality of life."

A local lobbyist and Democratic political strategist disagrees, saying Cayetano has "changed the game.

"You can hardly find a Filipino voter who is not either outright or tacitly supporting Cayetano," said the lobbyist, who is not supporting Cayetano.

The primary election isn’t until August, but already it appears that Cayetano has captured two important groups. It remains to be seen whether rail leaves Kapolei before the U.S. is out of Kabul.

———

Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.