Somewhere, politicians must have a scale to weigh the risk of raising taxes in an election year.

There will be elections this year. Half of the state Senate, all of the state House and the governor all will be running.

So it was more than a little startling to hear House Speaker Rep. Joe Souki use his opening-day speech to propose that Hawaii revisit taxing pensions.

If there was a tipping point marking Gov. Neil Abercrombie’s slide in popularity, it was in 2011 when he looked Hawaii’s seniors in the eye and said he wanted a piece of their pensions.

Abercrombie was quickly opposed by the local AARP, causing Abercrombie to launch a disastrous, name-calling attack on the AARP — and his downward spiral was on.

Wednesday, Souki appeared to be channeling Abercrombie when he looked at wealthy seniors and saw a new income stream.

"Our tax laws make allowances for seniors whose incomes are usually fixed and very limited," he said. "But very wealthy seniors who draw over $100,000 in pensions per person are also the beneficiaries of those tax considerations. Let’s fix that anomaly so that everyone pays their fair share no matter where their income comes from."

If Souki has one of those scales to weigh tax risk, he might want to have it rebalanced, because lining up with Abercrombie to raise taxes on seniors may not be such a winning plan.

Back in 2011, the House went along with a version of Abercrombie’s tax-the-pensioners plan. Rep. Calvin Say was speaker then, and he and Souki voted yes.

Since then, the dissidents took over and formed an alliance with Souki and the GOP that resulted in Souki being named speaker.

The dissidents and Republicans voted against the Abercrombie tax, but now Souki is leading a House with a Finance Committee chairwoman, Rep. Sylvia Luke, and a Democratic majority leader, Rep. Scott Saiki, who in 2011 voted against the pension tax.

This week Luke was noncommittal about Souki’s idea, neither supporting nor rejecting it.

Of course, in parsing the political niceties of the Legislature, anything less than fulsome praise pretty much means, "You don’t have my vote."

The AARP was not so hesitant to criticize any suggestion of raising taxes on seniors, wealthy or not.

"Are we so broke we are proposing a new tax?" says Barbara Kim Stanton, Hawaii AARP executive director. "Given that the governor announced a state surplus of $844 million only last month … we share our seniors’ disappointment in being blindsided by this."

Seniors are not a group to randomly provoke. The AARP says there are nearly 500,000 people in Hawaii over the age of 50. That would include every person thinking about retirement and their pension, and AARP notes there are 210,801 who are already 65 and older. A lot of votes.

In an interview Wednesday, Souki said he thought he could get a pension tax through the House.

"I don’t think it will be that hotly contested," Souki said, adding "I can get passage."

After that, there are no assurances that the Senate wants to look at a pension tax, so why would Souki risk exposing his House Demo-crats?

Some political observers noted this week that House members are somewhat dependent on the governor for favors, such as construction projects and other help during an election year. Souki acknowledged that the House "gains leverage in working with the administration."

"It is not everything, but it gives us a slight edge," Souki said.

That edge may not extend to AARP members and other senior citizens who are the state’s most reliable voters.

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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.