State lawmakers want to use this session of the Legislature to help steady the economic recovery, mindful that although the state has a surplus now, fickle revenue projections have again placed budget deficits on the horizon.
State House and Senate leaders may have to roll back Gov. Neil Abercrombie’s modest request for new state spending and make several adjustments to avoid budget shortfalls in the later years of the six-year financial plan. At the same time, lawmakers might pursue a substantial investment in bond-financed state construction, a streamlined state permitting process and an unemployment insurance tax break for businesses to help sustain the recovery.
The 60-day session of the Legislature opens Wednesday with an air of caution.
State House Speaker Calvin Say (D, St. Louis Heights-Wilhelmina Rise-Palolo Valley) said his emphasis would be on "lessening the burden on the general public and business. And the other theme would be anticipating a contingency plan for our economy that we’re in — which is very fragile."
State Senate President Shan Tsutsui (D, Wailuku-Kahului) said lawmakers are not facing billion-dollar budget deficits like they have the past few years, but still need to be careful about new spending. He would be more aggressive, though, on bond-financed state construction projects to repair aging infrastructure and create jobs.
"I think the one thing that makes this year different from the last several sessions is that, at least at this point, it doesn’t seem like we’re chasing or we’re going to start off in a big hole," he said. "But you just never know. You never know when that little pothole might appear. And so we want to just make sure that we do have that solid foundation."
Budget analysts for the Abercrombie administration believe only minor financial changes are necessary to get through the two-year budget cycle, but more significant adjustments are required to address anticipated deficits during the following four years.
On the revenue side, lawmakers might divert money generated from a rental car surcharge into the general fund beyond this fiscal year. They might also delay Abercrombie’s request to use proceeds from a recent bond sale to replenish the state’s rainy day and hurricane relief funds, which were tapped to help close a deficit last year. On the state program side, lawmakers could scale back the governor’s request for $188 million in new spending, a 1.7 percent increase that would take the state’s budget to $11.1 billion next fiscal year.
The state Council on Revenues predicted this month 11.5 percent revenue growth this fiscal year, down from 14.5 percent in September. The House, which reviews the budget first, might use a more conservative 10 percent growth estimate as a precaution against a further downgrade when the council issues its next forecast in March. The Senate will have the benefit of the new revenue forecast for its budget draft.
House and Senate leaders want to fast-track several bills that stalled at the end of last session, including legislation that would authorize state money that could be matched by the private sector to establish a new organ transplant center at the Queen’s Medical Center. The only transplant facility in the Pacific closed with the Hawaii Medical Center’s bankruptcy.
The House also wants to move quickly to avert a scheduled rise in the unemployment insurance tax rate that could cost businesses $180 to $650 per employee.
The Senate will propose as much as $500 million in new bond-financed state construction targeted primarily at smaller repair and maintenance projects at public schools, hospitals and other state buildings. The House is looking at perhaps a stronger state commitment to 10 big projects over a decade, such as the Thirty Meter Telescope in Hawaii County, the state’s tallest high-rise condominium in Kakaako, Honolulu rail, or large wind, geothermal or biofuel initiatives.
Both the House and Senate are interested in streamlining state permitting and procurement to get construction projects launched faster. Say suggested that he would be open to state procurement and environmental review exemptions for a few years to help get state projects off the ground.
Lawmakers will review a potential $200 million settlement between the Abercrombie administration and the state Office of Hawaiian Affairs on ceded lands — former Hawaiian crown lands — which involves the transfer of waterfront property in Kakaako that could be redeveloped.
Tsutsui said there was an even chance the settlement would be approved, influenced in part, he said, by the fact lawmakers were not consulted during the negotiations to head off potential concerns.
"It’s kind of like, ‘Hey, in the eighth inning, come play with us,’" he said.
Democrats have a 43-to-8 majority in the House and a 24-to-1 majority in the Senate, so they control the agenda.
State House Minority Leader Gene Ward (R, Kalama Valley-Hawaii Kai) said Republicans have shown the ability to influence debate by questioning majority Democrats.
House Republicans will support tax credits for businesses that hire workers off the unemployment rolls, a 3 percent set-aside for veteran-owned businesses in state purchases, incentives for homeowners to move to alternative energy, and protections against cybercrime. He said Republicans would call for a two-thirds’ vote requirement on new tax increases and fiscal notes to score the financial impact of legislation.
State Senate Minority Leader Sam Slom (R, Diamond Head-Hawaii Kai) said he would propose changes to reduce the tax burden and state mandates on businesses and offer performance incentives to spur job growth. He also said he would be a voice against what he described as excessive government spending.
"It’s going to be a struggle because this administration, any time they see either an increase in revenues, or any kind of projected savings, they immediately turn that into new expenditures," he said. "And I think that we have to change the climate of government."
While lawmakers are cautious because of doubts about the strength of the economic recovery, there is also political uncertainty. Every senator and representative is up for re-election this year — the first after political boundaries are redrawn based on the 2010 census — but the exact district lines are unknown because of a legal challenge to using nonresident military and students in the population base. Hawaii County is expected to gain a Senate seat from Oahu and many House and Senate districts could be altered when the final maps are approved, so some lawmakers could find themselves living outside the districts they now represent.
State House Majority Leader Pono Chong (D, Maunawili-Kaneohe) said that while lawmakers will introduce a wide range of bills that reflect their interests and what they hear from constituents, he senses that most agree economic recovery is the priority.
"I think clearly everybody is still focused on the economy and maintaining the recovery, and focusing on jobs from that perspective," he said.
State Senate Majority Leader Brickwood Galuteria (D, Downtown-Waikiki) said the message to senators has been to "turn down the volume" if possible on potential wedge issues — such as legalizing gambling or physician-assisted suicide — and keep the focus on the recovery.
"It’s got to be steady as she goes," he said.