The announced retirement of Maine’s GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe will have repercussions all the way to Hawaii.
Snowe, a 33-year congressional veteran, complained Tuesday that the Senate’s "partisan gridlock" stops any action. So, she reasons, why keep showing up to do nothing?
Her Senate seat is important because before her retirement announcement, Snowe was considered an easy GOP win. She was a building block toward the GOP takeover of the Senate. Her disenchantment changes the plans.
"What I have to consider is how productive an additional term would be," Snowe said in her retirement statement.
Snowe is considered the most moderate Republican senator now in the Senate.
"It’s about the country and solving problems, and that was my final conclusion … If we cannot solve problems in this difficult time in our nation’s history, at what point would we?" said Snow.
She is expected to be replaced by a liberal Democrat, meaning the GOP will need to push harder to claim a majority next year.
Making the projected Senate balance of power more of a question mark means Snowe’s decision will impact former Gov. Linda Lingle’s campaign back here in Hawaii.
If the "Inside the Beltway" analysis of Snowe’s departure is correct, political observers say more time and money will have to go to candidates such as Lingle.
"Odds are, the Maine seat will go to the Democrats, and that has suddenly lengthened the odds on a GOP Senate takeover," says Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, in response to my question.
For Lingle, this means the GOP will have to double-down on her campaign.
"I would expect Republicans to put more money and chips on Lingle in the wake of the Snowe shocker," says Sabato, who added that the GOP will have to "back any candidate, like Lingle, who has a legitimate chance to do well."
Lingle, herself, is attempting to fashion her political philosophy as a moderate. She compares herself to Snowe, as the sort of politician who drives toward the middle and can get along with both sides.
"Her comments on the atmosphere in Washington are sadly true and with the challenges America faces today, we can no longer afford political gamesmanship and partisan gridlock," says Lingle about Snowe’s retirement.
"If elected to the U.S. Senate, I will be committed to finding common ground with my colleagues on both sides of the aisle and, most importantly, will always put the people of Hawaii first in everything I do," Lingle promises.
Other observers, such as Neal Milner, the University of Hawaii political scientist, say moderate or not, Lingle in the Senate is still a Republican vote, just as Snowe’s vote was for the GOP.
If Snowe is leaving because there is no room for moderates and compromise in the new polarized U.S. Senate, where would Lingle go? Milner argues.
"What Snowe’s decision most significantly indicates is that whatever Lingle says about being a moderate, there is no chance that Lingle will in fact be one if she is elected," said Milner.
Senate moderates are going to be increasingly lonely in 2013, Milner predicts. Party discipline will force Lingle to vote with the GOP.
"So whatever Lingle’s personal inclinations are, or whatever she is telling the voter, there is no way she will be moderate if she is elected for one good reason: It is not possible for a newly elected Republican senator to be effective if he or she is moderate," Milner predicts.
One of Lingle’s best reasons for her election is that if the GOP takes over the Senate, it behooves Hawaii to have someone on the inside, someone who can partner with Hawaii’s senior Sen. Daniel K. Inouye, just like the late Alaskan Republican senior Sen. Ted Stevens did.
If the opposite appears more likely, that the Senate continues with a Democratic majority, then Lingle’s argument to team up Inouye with a GOP buddy becomes much less persuasive.
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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.