Declines in the visitor industry since September have prompted state officials to trim their growth forecast for Hawaii’s economy in 2013.

Economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product, is expected to advance by 2.4 percent this year, down from the 2.6 percent growth rate forecast three months ago by the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. The agency now expects the 2013 inflation-adjusted gross domestic product to be $63.4 billion, up from $61.9 billion in 2012.

However, DBEDT’s outlook for 2014 remains optimistic, with economic growth forecast to accelerate to 2.8 percent. That represents an upward revision from DBEDT’s previous forecast of 2.4 percent growth.

The main driver behind the downward revision in 2013 GDP was a decline in visitor arrivals and spending in recent months that can be attributed to the federal government shutdown in October and the depreciation of the Japanese yen, according to DBEDT. Record-high hotel room rates in Hawaii are also a factor in visitors’ choosing other destinations, department officials said in the quarterly report.

Visitor arrivals are forecast to increase by 2.9 percent this year down from DBEDT’s previous estimate of a 4.3 percent gain. The 2013 forecast for visitor spending was revised down to a 3 percent gain from the previous forecast of a 5.3 percent increase.

Despite the recent monthly declines in arrivals and spending, the tourism industry is still on track to break records this year in both categories, according to DBEDT. The forecast calls for 8.3 million visitors to spend $14.8 billion in Hawaii this year. That would exceed last year’s record performance when 8 million tourists spent $14.4 billion.

As growth in the visitor industry moderates other industries, including construction, will help take up the slack, said Richard Lim, DBEDT director.

"Our labor market is healthy; we have the fifth-lowest unemployment rate in the nation," Lim said.

The state’s unemployment rate averaged 4.8 percent through the first 10 months of this year, down from 6 percent in 2012. The rate is forecast to drop to 4.2 percent in 2014 and 4 percent in 2015.

Private businesses added 9,500 jobs to their payrolls from January through October, with construction accounting for 2,750 of those positions.

Weighing on job growth was the federal government, which eliminated 1,050 positions during that period. Healthy job growth is expected to continue in 2014, with 11,000 new private and government sector jobs forecast.

Building permits, a precursor of future building activity, rose 7.5 percent by value during the first nine months of 2013 compared with the same period a year earlier. The contracting tax base, a measure of construction already completed, increased by 16.7 percent during the first half of 2013 compared with the same period in 2012.